My prediction: PS4 will outsell Switch lifetime

[The_Liquid_Laser]

Mnementh said:

The_Liquid_Laser said:
My prediction is that the Switch will beat the PS4 by at least 30m (and likely much more than that). I say this believing that the PS4 lifetime will be 125m +/-20%.

In fact, this year's sales for the Switch will actually appear low once we see how it does over its lifetime. And 2018 sales will be even lower than this year's. Then in 2019 the Switch's hardware sales chart will look like a rocket taking off, and it will continue to sell impressively for several years after. The Switch will be the best selling console yet, easily outselling even the PS2.

Wow, that is bold. Currently Switch seems to go the way to 100M or so. That includes obvious increases in year two and three. But you predict more like 150M. This is the territtory of the most popular consoles of all time: PS2 and DS. I might be interesting, but I don't share at this point your confidence.

I think the Switch will have an unusual trajectory, but in the end it will win both the home and handheld markets for Generation 9 with one console.

Barkley said:

gentii said:
i dont know how ps4 will sell but switch will surpass Nintendo DS

 

The_Liquid_Laser said:
2018 sales will be even lower than this year's. Then in 2019 the Switch's hardware sales chart will look like a rocket taking off, and it will continue to sell impressively for several years after. The Switch will be the best selling console yet, easily outselling even the PS2.

Two people in one thread predicting over 155m for the switch? :|

I'm not sure how you can think the Switch will sell less in 2018 than 2017 but somehow still sell over 155m lifetime xD. What does your rough year-by-year look like in your head?

Something like this?

2017 - 13m (13m)
2018 - 12m (25m)
2019 - 30m (55m)
2020 - 35m (90m)
2021 - 30m (120m)
2022 - 20m (140m)
2023 - 16m (156m)

It just doesn't look right, my current predictions for both are 70-80m for Switch and 110-120m for PS4.

Hard to predict exactly, because Generation 9 will be unusual, while Generation 8 is a fairly predictable generation.  It's basically like Gen 6.  Think about Generation 7, though.  The vast majority of people were off on a year by year basis throughout Gen 7, and even those who knew what was going to happen could at best give an accurate 1 year projection of numbers.

So Gen 9 will not be quite as wild as Gen 7, but it will be a lot harder to predict than Gen 8.  The best I can say is that the Switch's sales trajectory will be a lot like the DS's trajectory (with a few exceptions that I will state below).  The DS's hardware sales went like this

Year 1 - 3m (3m)
Year 2 - 11.5m (14.5m)
Year 3 - 21m (35.5m)
Year 4 - 29m (64.5m)
Year 5 - 31.5m (96m)
Year 6 - 29m (125m)
Years 7-10 29m (154m) 

(I am ending each year at Dec. 31 in the above numbers.)

The Switch's sales are going to look like that with the following adjustments: Year end this year we mostly know will be 12-15m sales.  Year 2 will be same or somewhat less than DS (0-50% less).  Years 3 - 6 will be same or somewhat more than DS (0-50% more each year).  And Switch will have very good tail end sales for years 7+ (50-150% more than DS). 

I know that is a big range, but exact numbers are hard to predict.  Overall what I am saying is that Switch is going to win both the home and handheld markets, and that is why it is going to be the best selling console yet.