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Rare is owned by MS so I don't think they'll go anywhere unless they are financially in a good enough position to leave. If they left, would they even have any IPs to take with them or does MS own them?!

If SoT does well, MS will have them milk SoT, after all, it is GaaS. Best case scenario, they will have a dedicated team working on expansion passes and updates whilst another team at Rare starts on a new similar project.