Opinion: Nintendo Switch will still FAIL

[Bofferbrauer2]

squibbfire said:
14 million year one? ...they have 8.5 now...you think sell 6 million by jan or next april?...sure holiday sales are ok..but...historically Jan isn't going to be a strong year neither will feb for console or handhelds..

They are at 8.2 millions...at November 3rd, not end of december as you're implying here (we're not even mid december, even, but well, you corrected yourself o that one in your following post). in other words there are still 9 weeks to come this year, and among those all the heavy hitting weeks. Nintendo also traditionally does better in december than they do in november. You could count on an additional 2 millions in the US alone until year's end, and the missing 4 millions should come without too much hassle from the rest of the world outside of US. 300-400k for the best weeks in november and december would even have been just okay at best for the Wii U at it's height, 700k-1M would be much more realistic

Yes, January and February are not the strongest months, but by that time the Switch will be above 12 million, so 14 million is very possible, even 15 if december goes very well. 

Jigsawx1 said:

Bofferbrauer2 said:

XBO will be happy to reach those 50M. They got a shot now that the ONE X is out, but before it's release, even at current sales it would need to sell steadily until 2020 to get to 50M.

Switch is selling much better than the XBO ever did. In 7 months it sold close to as much as the XBO did in its best year while not even having a holiday season yet and being heavily supply constrained for months after launch (and still is in Japan to this day). It's quite possible that the Switch will overtake the XBO in 2019, or even 2018 if they really are going to ship and sell over 20M consoles that year.

Switch is an inversion of the XBO. Switch doesn't have all the multiplats, but instead has lots of first party titles, and of great quality to boot. Unlike the multiplats which only offer a short boost the first party titles keep on selling and push the baseline up and up and over. Just have a look at Kristof's Sales comparision chart: Switch is largely in front of the XBO, which was just selling better early on due to holiday launch boost and Switch supply problems, but since then the Switch has build up a 3 million lead before even hitting the holiday season.

 

2018? 8.2 million +20 million is 28. million. I think the switch could be happy to sell 15 million in 2018 and same for 2019, so more reallistic is 12-14 million......

12-14M in 2018? Even without Smash/Pokemon/Metroid Prime 4 that would be a pretty weak result for the console, considering this year will beat that while having been supply constrained for half the year around the globe and still does in some part, especially Japan. Nintendo themselves forecasted 22-30M, so you really think they will only do half of that? According to Nintendos forecast I was even lowballing with "just" 20 million sold, and the Switch will definitely not drop off a cliff next year with all the game announcements that are coming in practically at daily basis