Bold Prediction : PS4 goes over 130m Lifetime.

[VideoGameAccountant]

Shadow1980 said: 

VideoGameAccountant said:

Yeah, I gave the reason

"I was more trying to get a ballpark estimate based on what VGchartz have"

But for fun, let's compare. From May 2016 to January 2017, # of PS4s sold increased from 40.4 million to 54.3 million, which is about 13 million. PS4 has sold 60.4 million as of June 2017. So another 13 million over about 7 months puts it at 73 million which is what I was responding too.

https://www.playstation.com/en-us/corporate/press-releases/2016/playstation-4-sales-surpass-40-million-units-worldwide/

https://gematsu.com/2017/01/ps4-sells-6-2-million-units-2016-holiday-season-worldwide-sales-top-53-4-million

https://www.twst.com/update/sony-corporation-playstation4-sales-surpass-60-4-million-units-worldwide/

The number doesn't matter too much because I'm making a generalization. Note how I never said where it will exactly be but a ballpark (around 100M). The point was more that I don't think it will sell 130 million. A difference of 3 million won't change that, and my back of the napkin guess was close enough so that I could make my point. Forest vs trees people. 

100M is too low, even for a ballpark estimate. Looking at past holidays, the PS4 ought to sell at least 9 million for Q4, putting it at around 74M at year's end. It should easily clear 100M by the end of 2019. How much it sells after that depends on when the PS5 comes out, though I doubt that will be any earlier than 2020.

I said around 100 million total and that the next system would come out in 2019, so unless you think its going to sell impressively well thereafter, by estimate would be about right. Which means it goes back to the launch of the PS5. I've given the reason it's going to be 2019, so tell me why it wont happen before 2020.