November NPD 2017 predictions thread

[VideoGameAccountant]

jason1637 said:

VideoGameAccountant said:

So would it be Oct 29th - Nov 24. Do I have that right?

Oct 29th- Nov 25th

Thanks for clearing that up!

Rather than editing my original post, I'll just revise my prediction here. I still think Nintendo Switch will come out on top. Here is some data from Fox

http://www.foxnews.com/us/2017/11/26/black-friday-sets-online-sales-record-shoppers-spend-up-to-1m-per-minute.html

Online sales at the 100 largest U.S. Web retailers totaled approximately $7.9 billion on Black Friday and Thanksgiving, marking a nearly 18 percent increase from 2016, according to Adobe Analytics, the research arm of software company Adobe.

Retail analytic firm ShopperTrak said that preliminary data indicate a 1.6 percent decline in foot traffic to retail stores on Thanksgiving Day and Black Friday, although the decline on Black Friday was less than 1 percent.

With Adobe putting the Switch as the top-selling product on Black Friday and Thanksgiving, I think the growth of online sales may give it the edge. There is also the fact that Switch will probably outsell the other system outside of the Black Friday weekend as well. Also, the NPD would start on the Sunday after Mario Odyssey releases, some of the hardware sales made during October (actual month, not NPD) may carry over to November. 

In fairness, I'd say it's about 50-50, and I'm less confident than my original projection. If the PS4 comes out on top, it would mean it's in-store sales were better than Switch's online sales. I expect Switch will win December based on what I said about Cyber Monday (among other factors).