Bold Prediction : PS4 goes over 130m Lifetime.

[JRPGfan]

abronn627 said:

Shadow1980 said:
Assuming that this year is the peak, which I think is very likely the case, the PS4 will have peaked earlier than the 360 & PS3 did. But it still has potential for solid legs, better than what the PS3 & 360 had. Assuming the PS5 doesn't launch until Nov. 2020, the PS4 ought to reach 110M by the end of that year, with maybe at most another 10M sold afterward. But 130M will require perhaps as many as 58M after this year, most of which will be sold prior to Nov. 2020 (assuming that is indeed when the PS5 launches). 130M is probably going to require Sony launching the PS5 no earlier than 2021, and even that is a stretch

This post is the most credible analysis of how thing might play out and yet, everyone seems to ignore it.

I think hes being overly pessimistic though.... so while his analysis seems well though out his numbers dont really make sense.

He believes by 2020, ps4 will be at 110m unit sold.

That means 2018,2019,2020 = ~30m units only sold across next 3 years.

Hes probably expecting something like 2018 = 13m year, 2019 = 11m year, 2020 = 6m year.

 

Thats too low, imo. Hes too pessimistic.

Watch next year, the PS4 does like 18m again and you ll know his numbers where too low (and he believed lifetime would be 120m).