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quickrick on 22 November 2017
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RolStoppable said:
quickrick said:

we are in a different market now, then when DS was in its prime ,lets just ignore the mobile market which knocked sony out of the  handheld market, and cut the ds successor  sales  in half, switch will be way more front loaded then 3ds, because the small boost it will get from nintendo home console gamers which is around 10-15 million. and the huge releases this year, is that is very uncommon for nintendo to release to many huge franchises in one year.

Yes, we are in a different market now. All of Nintendo's games will go to a single console in the future: Switch. That will make it common that a few huge Nintendo IPs release every year on a single console, plus third party support will be plentiful as well.

You are very wrong about the number of Nintendo home console gamers, because you assume that Wii U was a perfectly executed system. It would have to be in order to make your claim truthful. But since Wii U was such a big blunder, it's completely irrational to put the number of people interested in a Nintendo home console at only 10-15m.

Similarly, you make the huge assumption that the 3DS was perfectly executed, therefore the mobile market has to be responsible for the decline from DS to 3DS. But the 3DS was a big blunder as well, so the number of people that Switch can reach is far greater than Wii U and 3DS combined.

AngryLittleAlchemist said:

Wow, thanks Rol! I tried to find the breakdown by the site, but I can't find it! I wonder why GBA was so low in Europe, like you said it was cut short, but those sales seem small in comparison to what I imagine the U.S. and Japan did.

I think the Switch matching the DS will be hard WW, especially in Europe. Still, with a few adjustments i'm sure Nintendo can make the Switch one of their most successful generations in Europe!

Is there a link to region break down? Thanks!

Edit: Oh wow you weren't kidding about it lining up well with the DS ... it sold 450k more copies than the DS by October 7th. Probably won't outsell it, but who knows  

You can look up numbers here: http://www.vgchartz.com/analysis/platform_totals/

Nintendo's numbers have to be largely derived from the regional breakdown of their shipment numbers; Nintendo's official breakdown is Japan/Americas/Other which differs from VGC which displays Japan/North America/Europe/Others. Numbers for other console manufacturers have a higher degree of estimates, but most of it should be in the right ballpark.

We'll see who's right next year.