Switch Is Succeeding Without Blue Ocean Casuals, Nintendo Should Not Forget This.

[DonFerrari]

SpokenTruth said:

fatslob-:O said:

Actually, chart performance is highly correlated to a games legs ... 

It's not a good sign that a game is outside of the top 20 regardless of whatever conditions and especially this early in a systems lifetime where first party games are it's lifeblood to maintaining momentum ... 

I'm amazed that you don't know what a game having legs means.  Legs are about consistently selling long after launch. 

DonFerrari said:

That is the modus operandi at VGC. Always resort to userbase and install base to reflect an analysis of sales of one game against other.

But when it's relevant, you can't just ignore it either.

Fatslob claims that for a game to qualify as having legs, it must remain in the top 20 every chart regardless of the consistency of long term sales. To manage this, it must sell at a rate that is irrespective of the 1st week sales but is instead measured against other titles.  Legs are a measure against itself.

For example: with specific regards to install base, to breach the top 20 a game must sell ~50,000 units globally each week.  For Switch, that is a game that must have a sales ratio of 1:140 against a PS4 game of 1:1300 and XOne of 1:640.  Combined they are 1:1940. This shows it is more difficult for a Switch title to maintain a position in the top 20 than for any old or new title to appear in the top 20 (again, old or new title, that doesn't matter). 

And that doesn't even take into consideration the install base of the game itself.  LoZ:BotW has already sold 4.7 million units.  That means new sales have a 2.3 million Switch pool to purchase from (plus whatever new console sales are for the week).  Now that ratio dropped to 1:46.

Install base matters when maintaining a presence in the top 20 and these numbers prove it.  And again, maintaining a top 20 presence isn't even the qualification for having legs.  That's just an arbitrary goal post Fatslob put up.

 

And by the way, that's using VGC and global figures.  If I used NPD, I'd have to account for the fact they combine SKUs across platforms, do not track Switch digital sales, and they rank according to revenue (not units sold).

See my previous reply... for the legs of the current games launching, saying PS4/X1 have much more userbase is irrelevant. But also there is little value to say the Switch games weren't on TOP 20, the month may have had a lot of solid releases. The legs of those games (which I agree will probably be very good).

On LoZ:BotW is one of the few situations were we surely would need to consider the lack of available userbase to sell through because the attach rate is immense. But legwise it's possible it won't have much unless it breaks by a lot all of Zelda previous installments for total sale, because it is already quite high.

Anyway, from what we know from at least Wii and WiiU, Nintendo flagships have legs (although the guy didn't say the games of Switch won't have legs, just that it will be smaller than Wii) but we really can't be sure how much better or worse its leg will be compared to the flagships in Wii.