Switch Is Succeeding Without Blue Ocean Casuals, Nintendo Should Not Forget This.

[zorg1000]

fatslob-:O said:

SpokenTruth said:

Are you seriously trying to tell us that Nintendo's 1st party Switch titles will not have legs?  I just want you come out and say it.  And I guess install base is not factored into your argument at all.  Does it really bother you so much that you'll abandon logic and reason just to carry on a projection of failure?

I'm saying that the legs of Nintendo's 1st party won't be the same as either the Wii or DS and we can see this already since Zelda and Mario Kart is barely hanging in NPD's top 20 charts and install base is not a concern once we consider that hardware sales comes with a purchase of software too ... 

As the install base increases so do software sales up until to a certain point where the said software makes up a vanishing portion of the hardware sales ... 

Despite Switch's hardware numbers, it's older releases aren't able to keep up to the same degree anymore so even with an increased install based the attach rates decrease as well ... 

We cannot see that and yes install base is a concern

 

Oct 2017 (SW 8th month)

SW-2.6 million

PS4+XBO-37 million

 

June 2007 (Wii 8th month)

Wii-3.2 million

PS3+360-7.0 million

 

SW is going against consoles with over 14x the install base vs Wii going up against consoles with a little over 2x the install base.

If PS4 & XBO were only about a year old and Nintendo games included digital on NPD charts than we would be looking at a much different chart. Games like BotW & MK8D would be higher while games like Splatoon, Pokken & Mario Rabbids would likely be in the charts.