Shadow1980 said:
I'm not talking about second holiday sales vs. first holiday. I'm talking about very early-life sales, which is what we're talking about with the Switch. The Switch isn't even 9 months old yet. When comparing LTD sales at this early stage, we have to take into account when a system was released, because it can make a big difference. When certain people were comparing the PS4's sales in Japan to the Wii U's for those first few weeks, I had to point that out to them, because that actually matters.
For the U.S., NPD data suggests pretty much the same thing:
Those nine November releases saw an average Nov./Dec. split of 48.7%/51.3%, with an average increase of 5.4% in December. Meanwhile, the four first-half releases had an average Month 1/Month 2 split of 70%/30%, with an average decrease of 57.6% in Month 2. We're dealing with clear, consistent trends here, present in two regions, that correlate strongly with release timing. Supply issues appear to be largely irrelevant. Even is stock wasn't a concern, the Switch was going to be seeing a large drop in April. At most, we might have seen about 500k had stock not been an issue (assuming the drop in Month 2 was the same as the PSP's, which was the smallest of the four). We sure as hell weren't going to seeing anything close to 700k (assuming a PS4-level drop, the biggest Nov.-to-Dec. drop of any holiday release). This is why LTD comparisons of early-life sales should at minimum come with the caveat that a holiday release will always have an advantage early on. A more honest comparison would be something that exempts launch sales altogether and tries to compare like with like. That's why in addition to standard LTD charts, I like to make monthly charts aligned not to the first month, but rather to the first full Q4 after launch (excepting the PS1, N64, & Dreamcast in the U.S., as they launched so close to Q4). It allows us to gather a more accurate comparison of baseline sales, as well as sales in their first full non-launch holiday (assuming they had holiday launches). For example:
That's the kind of thing we should be looking at. Not a strict aligned LTD comparison, which makes the Switch look worse than it is because after just two months it would have already accumulated a deficit of 811.5k, the vast majority of which was due to the second month, and that's because the PS4's second month was a December while the Switch's was an April. Then there's those Q1 2014 sales, which further helps the PS4 as February and, to a lesser extent, March get boosts in the U.S. due to people getting their tax returns, an in a strict launch-aligned scenario the PS4's February & March would be equal to the Switch's June & July, and June & July aren't really known for being huge sales months barring some notable release or price cut. Overall, after just seven months of sales, the PS4 amassed 3326k in the U.S., while the Switch only sold ~2324k, a deficit of a million units and a sales ratio of 1.43-to-1. Makes the Switch look quite inferior to the PS4 in terms of sales, doesn't it? Compare that to the six-month period of Q2+Q3, where the PS4 sold 1580k in 2014 and the Switch sold 1413.5k, a deficit of only 166.5k and a ratio of only 1.12-to-1. Suddenly, the Switch isn't looking too bad. Now that's a fair comparison, and that's what this should be about: Fair comparisons. Strict launch-aligned LTD sales are not a truly fair comparison for two systems released at different times of year, and the data spells it out loud and clear as to why this is. While this declines in importance the longer the sales period we are comparing is, it is extremely important for early-life sales.
Personally, I think the Switch will ultimately fall well short of the PS4. Given how Nintendo systems typically perform, I think we can expect rapid growth for the Switch, especially once it gets a price cut and a main-series Pokemon game under its belt (and Nintendo is expected to ramp up production big time next fiscal year), but the system will peak earlier (probably 2019 at the latest) and decline more rapidly than the PS4 will, being replaced perhaps no later than 2022, and having very poor legs after that. The Switch should absolutely destroy the PS4 in Japan, while the PS4 should have a resounding lead in Europe, and the Switch might pull ahead of the PS4 in LTD sales in the U.S. but fall back behind later on. Overall, I think the Switch will sell somewhere in the 75-90M range (30M in NA. 20-25M in both Japan and Europe, and maybe 5-10M elsewhere), while the PS4 will end up in the 110-120M range (35-40M in NA, 45-50M in Europe, 10M in Japan, and about 15-20M elsewhere). But my predictions aren't based on how the Switch's LTD sales have compared to the PS4's in their first seven months aligned. It's based on looking at various trends: how systems of a given brand tend to sell over time, how regional differences in buying habits come into play, how sales tend to progress through a calendar year... things of that sort. And with that, I've said all I care to say on the subject for now. This has taken up a couple hours of my time (gathering data and making new charts from scratch isn't a fast & easy task), and I have to go eat something. |
all you have to is look at shipments for every successful console that launched during its first holiday compared to its second holiday, because of stock issues the next holiday increase by a good 3-6 million units, while it might me a small advantage, its not any where what people are making it out to be . switch should get a huge boost this holiday that will destroy every consoles first holiday ever, just because it will have plenty of stock, compared to console holiday launches.
