| Mnementh said: Thanks alot for this. Data always beats assumptions. According to this we could expect that launching in the holidays might give a boost of 5-10% of the sales of the first half year - at least in Japan. To the people claiming this can't be because supply constraints dominating sales: Supply is dependent on how much the company produces. The underlying assumption in your argument is, that this number is constant. But while there is no infinite production capacity, the production is strongly dependent on how much the console cpmpany orders from manufacturers like Foxconn, Pegatron and the like. So, they look at preorders, market research and some common sense and make educated guesses how much they do order. So in the holidays their research indicates higher demand, so they probably supply more units. This explains the data Shadow compiled. |
NO...... I don't believe whats happenning here.
A lot of things go into releasing new hardware. They even avoid flooding the market with like 6M consoles just in case theer is some sort of manufacturing defect. The sometimes don't even start making the consoles en masse till like 2 months before the announced launch date. There are components that may need to go into the console that aren't in as much stock as the other components.
Ok...... if sony plans on launching say in november and they announce this in say june. Between june and november they could rack up around 1.5M pre-orders globally. They still have to ship out more than that to provide for those walking into a store and buying the console. But somehow, they only manage to ship 2.5M units. Everything sells out in less than a week. Zero stock available for another week or two. Releasing in november has done shit all for them. They simply didn't have the stock.
And you are the one assuming her. Fact is this, nintendo opened their launch with 2M. Thats a fact. It just happened like in march this year. They only put into motion a production ramp up in october this year. 6 months after their launch. During alll that time, they literally couldn't make the switch fast enough. This is a fact. If ramping up manufacturing is as easy as you make it sound then they should have done it n month 3 at least.
I asked and no one seems to have answered. Can anyone show me over the last 30 years any console that had 4M units shipped in its launch week? This is not an assumption, its just fact. If no one can find such a console, can they tell me why they thin that is? The manufacturer just didn't want to sell units?
