The Switch and Nintendo hardware

[The_Liquid_Laser]

Lonely_Dolphin said:

The_Liquid_Laser said: 

Next year the Zelda effect will be gone, and Switch sales will slow down somewhat until Pokemon comes out.

I'll ignore you ignoring my post as I'm sure we all know why you did that, so now I'm only curious why you think the "Zelda effect" will disappear next year specifically. What's stopped it from disappearing sooner? What's suddenly gonna stop it next year, especially when it's selling like an evergreen title? Since it's supposedly the only killer app on Switch thus the highest selling game, you have to also be saying that proven evergreen series like 3D Mario, Splatoon, and Mario Kart are also gonna suddenly stop selling. Otherwise, they'd well overtake Zelda and cleary prove it's not the only killer app, heck not even the biggest one (though MK8D is gonna do that regardless).

Killer app does not mean the same thing as evergreen title.  I am sure there is a correlation between the two, but they are not the same thing.

The term "killer app" is a simple way of explaining the microeconomics behind hardware and software.  The vast majority of customers do not value hardware by itself, save for a few tech enthusiasts.  The vast majority of customers only value software.  When someone owns a console then they will buy a new game if they value it at $60 or higher.  If they value the software at below $60, then they will buy it used or not at all.  However, if the person does not own a console, then they need to value a game at $360 or higher.  They need a game that fans will be very passionate for.  (And of course this is a bit of a simplification, because three games valued at $160 or more still function like a killer app.  You still need games that fans are exceptionally passionate for.)

Evergreen titles just need to be valued at $60 or more.  Mario Kart is an evergreen title that is not really a killer app.  On the Wii it sold 37m, and on the Wii U it sold 8m.  The sales numbers swing so much based on the install base of the console.  Pokemon games are all killer apps.  You always see a big increase in hardware sales when the first Pokemon game comes out for the system.  Also Pokemon sales figures don't swing so much like Mario Kart.  They always sell within a few million of each other.

Zelda is unique in that sometimes it is a killer app, and sometimes it isn't.  Ocarina and earlier Zeldas were killer apps.  Then they stopped being killer apps.  Breath of the Wild made Zelda a killer app again.