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Teeqoz said:
trunkswd said:
PS4 adjusted up 1.8m units to 65,656,515. (LT shipped at 67.5m as of Sep 30). When you add in the missing week of September hardware units on shelves/transit would be around 1.6m units heading into the holiday season.

1.6 million in stock before the holiday season seems awfully low. I think you are overcorrecting a bit here

I waited for you to say that, i didn't want to br me starting that...

 

 

Exactly, it could even be 3m.

 

 

Last year I got crucified for trying to prove that ps4 having 3m on the shelves can be normal *and that Sony overstuffed the shelves, my theory about that was that they shipped way more Ps4 slim units than the desirable underestimating pro version demand/anticipation.

 

 

(* thiswas based on comparison on official data and vgc data about markets that we don't have official data, increased in favor of ps4 of course with shipments data by Sony ).

 

Vgc adjusted up ps4 last year by 500k-600k (2.4m on thr shelves ) and in January we learnt that ps4 was overtracked by the number it was adjusted up and that it had 3.7m units on the shelves.

 

 

 

Apropos, I think he went overboard with 3ds adjustment up too, it definitely  needed an adjustement up of more than 300k in Europe since it was undertracked by 105.000+ as of early june in France, 200k vs 95k Jan-May ( NOF sales data ) - Jan-early june due a 5k weekly undertracking for 24 weeks, thus year.

 

 

200k in 5 months is 9k weekly sales on average, thus weekly sales baseline in Europe couldn't be 13k but double of that and a bit more for obvious reasons.

 

 

The 850k adjustment up in Eu seems excessive.

 

 

3ds must have more than 1.5m units on the shelves ( 2m ? ) , 550k are in Japan.

 

 

Note: I just checked and found out that trunks added the missing 400k in Europe this year but also another 400k in 2016 too (  I had the wrong notion that he mistakenly added them in rest of Europe for this year ) , based on a sell through chart by for FY16/17 Q1-Q3 by nintendo, 3ds had sold 1,95m  in EU while here it was estimated to have sold 2.09m for the whole year,

Consequently, 3ds was needing adjustment up in Eu in 2016 and it looks like trunks did an accurate adjustment up out of nowhere because I hadn't linked him the chart, i had forgotten that and hadn't even notified ioi last year.

 

 

However, I still believe that 3ds must have 1.5m+ even 2m+ i coudl say, ( holiday ahead and hardware revision release ) units on the shelves, so row sales maybe along with Europe sales before 2015.

Last edited by tak13 - on 15 November 2017