PS4 VS Switch lifetime sales, which console will sell the most?

[VideoGameAccountant]

fatslob-:O said:

VideoGameAccountant said:

I find it very cute that you said I was wrong yet you wrote that post. 

First, you don't understand that projections are not the same as actual. Fun fact, did you know that Nintendo revised their projection for the 3DS downward. They originally expected the system to sell 16 million but revised it downward in the third quarter. They, of course, didn't sell 16 million. 14 million is what Nintendo is projecting for the Switch, but Nintendo is also very conservative as well. It goes back to what I said about ignoring information that doesn't fit your conclusion. I showed you how the system could sell over 14 million and could be at 18 million by the end of the third quarter, but that doesn't matter. 

"Its doubtful Switch will be able to match that peak during the holiday." And why not? The Switch is already outselling the 3DS within the first two quarters. Why would it not do that during the third? You don't say. You just claim it's impossible. It can't happen.

You also keep bringing up shipment vs sales when I'm comparing the same reports (meaning it would be irrelevant if it was sold-in vs sold-through), so I'm not sure you even understand what's going on.

At this point, you are moving the goal post to avoid admitting your wrong. You were so sure about comparing the Switch to the 3DS, but when you are clearly shown that the Switch is outpacing the 3DS, you proclaim it can't sell the same numbers this holiday. Of course, you proclaim that with no actual facts or even arguments. And it's funny because you claim I'm in denial, but I've clearly shown you the numbers on how the Switch is outperforming. Your response is to say how it just can't  happen. That is the definition of denial. 

Still doesn't make you any less wrong for thinking that Nintendo shared sold through numbers instead of shipment ... (A "VideoGameAccount" that probably doesn't take a look at quarterly reports, well who'd have thunk it ?) 

Also, this was Nintendo's 5th biggest adjustment in a quarter and they're pretty much on track to meet their expectations comfortably when the Switch has yet to have stock issues (600K units in the channels as of the end of September and they just raised shipment expectations by 4M units too) so the only way Nintendo will be able to ship more units than what they forecast is if demand for the system outstrips availability ... (Nintendo stopped being conservative and started being realistic since the only time they ever adjusted hardware up this high was in the DS's third fiscal year in the first quarter) 

I never said "impossible" to begin so straw man much ? As for why well for one thing the Switch still can't match up to what the 3DS did in Japan this whole year and will fall further behind when the 3DS had SEVERAL weeks where it sold 200K+ units in Japan during the holidays so that's one region where the Switch already gets counted out despite the already strong performance. 3DS also managed to beat the the Switch in the US in August and will manage to come close in September so the system is well positioned for the holiday rush all things considered. 3DS's first holiday in the US was by far it's best holiday performance in the US in all of it's years and PS4 in any of it's years has yet to topple what the 3DS did in it's first December in the US so it's definitely a strong possibility that the 3DS will start catching up to the Switch in the US during the holidays and especially when the 3DS will get boosted by 3D Mario and Mario Kart simultaneously! So already the Switch won't be able to match what the 3DS did in it's holidays in Japan and it's also unlikely to match the 3DS in it's first holiday in the US which just leaves Europe ... (The 3DS in November in the US sold just as much as the Switch did in it's launch month in the US and the Switch was Nintendo biggest system launch ever) 

As for your last paragraph, distress much ? It's an undeniable fact that Nintendo is expecting Switch to be upto par with 3DS like it or not ... 

"I never said "impossible" to begin so straw man much ?"

"Still doesn't make you any less wrong for thinking that Nintendo shared sold through numbers instead of shipment "

Your post is the most pathetic thing I've seen and you keep digging this hole for your self. I love how you say I can't read quarterly reports when all the information I provided you is from quarterly reports and you keep getting these things wrong. You keep adding some weird sentense at the end of your paragraphs like "distress much," like some childish projection. And you still bring the shipment vs sales thing up even though it doesn't matter. How about you provide that source I asked you for in the second response. 

Also, the 3DS sold 1.07 million in Japan by Q2 2011 while the Switch sold 1.35 million (despite massive supply issues) in the same time frame. As of September, the 3DS was ahead by 180K life-to-date. In the US and Other, the Switch is up in both the 1st full fiscal year and LTD. The only metric the 3DS is ahead by was Japan's LTD sales. August is also part of Q2 meaning you don't understand accounting periods. But please, tell me how its impossible for the Switch to not outperform the 3DS when it already is in every region.

At this point, your post only deserves ridicule. I've shown you the numbers 10 ways from Sunday, but you won't listen because they don't confirm your theory. Switch can't beat 3DS despite it beating 3DS in the same time frame. You fail to understand that projections are not necessarily exactly what the company will do and that they are incentivized to beat it. Others have already pointed out how you move the goal post and how you over-rely on projection. Not much reason to continue beside to mock your ramblings.