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Miyamotoo on 13 November 2017
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fatslob-:O said:
Miyamotoo said:

Its not true that Switch stopped to be supply constrained on evre market except Japan in past 3 monts, its more like past 1-2 monts for US (even now on Amazon US Mario Odyssey bundle is sold out), and Japan alone can make huge difference, we could have sold 3m until now instead 2m if there are not suple supply countries. Also Switch yet needs to finish its first FY on market its not like we talk about fact when it come to Switch numbers for hole FY. So fact is that it will be much more accurate and more interesting to compare sales of full second year on market and based on that draw some conclusions.

But you do realise that despite it was heavily suply constrained until recently and still it is heavily suply constrained in Japan, Switch won most of US NPD months from its launch and its selling much better in Japan, in year in which PS4 is strongest in 4 hole years on market!? Also Switch will most likely have much higher shipments on its second year on market than they will have in FY.

New Zelda, new 3D Mario, new Mario Kart....potential strong 3rd party exclusives, potential stron new IPs...will of course move hardware. And revisions of hardware (for instance smaller and cheaper Switch Mini/Pocket), wii gave huge boost in sales.

The important part is that the Switch was available at MSRP no less in early September in the US so supply issues didn't keep persisting like peachbuggy kept insisting and the Mario Odyssey bundle is likely limited time only so it would've ran out of stock anyway since Nintendo never intended to keep it for the long term like most game + console bundles aside from Wii Sports being packed in with the Wii which was a lifetime bundle ... 

New Zelda is a given but neither Majora's mask, Skyward Sword or A link between worlds all of which were 2nd entries on the same platforms ever increased hardware sales to a significant degree so it's a nonfactor. There was only ever one time we saw 2 3D Mario entries on the same platform and that was on the Wii so it's just as likely another 3D Mario entry may not appear on the Switch even with Nintendo's combined resources since it could easily be offset with having to deal with a more powerful platform such as the Switch. Another mario Kart is an open possibility but Nintendo is already capitalizing on hardware sales with MK8D but that's not to say that there isn't more potential left with a new Mario kart game. 

As for "strong" 3rd party exclusives I think the Switch is already a regression in that department compared to the 3DS despite the fact that the Switch has had strong sales in japan so far but that is probably caused by external factors so the Switch is not at fault there. It's much harder to create a high budget Switch game than a high budget 3DS game since the former has higher technical/content standards so Bravely Default developers such Silicon Studio can't keep up anymore and Level-5 just caved in with Inazuma Eleven by making multiplatform with the PS4 even though it was Nintendo centric franchise ...  High budget 3rd party japanese games which are likely for the Switch are most likely going to end up multiplatform but I could see some of the indies being 3rd party exclusives however, they're hardly what anyone would describe as "strong" ...  

New IPs are a possibility and is probably what the Switch would need to be able to come close with the PS4 and I could easily see a scenario where there's only 1 revision to keep removable joy-con compatibility which limits changes to the original devices form factor ... 

Yes it was available in September (just for record September was last month of last quarter for which we get last official numbers from Nintendo so I dont see from where you have 3 monts), but also was out of stock very often, hardly that Mario Odyssey bundle was active just for one week (lol), it will most likely be active bundle at least during holiday season also, and its out of stock on Amazaon bascily from Mario Odyssey launch. Of Course this is just for US, in Japan currently is still supply constrained, and Switch yet need to be launch in new territories like South Korea and Taiwan and later probably China.

Second 3D Zelda doesnt need to have effect like Zelda BotW (and hardly it can achieve that), but its system seller game and big game in any case. We also have first time hybrid console and unified platform, now we have 3D Mario game in 8. month of console on market, remember SMG2 was relased only 2.5 years after SMG1, so we are definatly getting onother 3D Mario game for Switch. Yes they capitalizing on hardware sales with remaster of previous Mario Kart game, and most likly we are getting MK9 on Switch also. Pokemon game is realasing on around evre 1-2 years, 3DS had 4 difrent Pokemon games, so its safe to say that Switch will have at least 2-3 difrent Switch games Also there other potential strong existing and active IPs or old IPs that could come back, or totaly new ones.

I was thinking strong exclusives in vein of Bayonetta 2, Switch will definitely have much more similar exclusives that will attract more non-Nintendo fans.

We are definitely getting new IPs, Nintendo confirmed that. There will definitely be at least one revision but most likly there will more difrent revisions (smaller, cheaper Switch Mini/Pocket is almost certain moment 3DS dies, Switch XL/Pro is also posible, same like Switch Home Only...), Switch will most likly be family of Switch systems similar like 3DS, also Switch will probably have different addons, VR/AR addon, controllers addons..

In other words, Nintendo will not have any problems with keeping momentum with new big games and some Switch revisions, with only one platform they need to support, that will be much easier that it was with 3DS/WiiU.