The Switch and Nintendo hardware

[The_Liquid_Laser]

Nem said:

Hey guys.

So, it has become apparant to me with several game announcements and teases that the Switch is looking like it will suceed the 3DS aswell as the Wii U.

This means that the Switch would have to sell about 80m to match the combined Wii U+3DS sales.

What do you think? Will the switch sell above 80m or will Nintendo launch a sucessor to the 3DS?

Would you still consider the Switch a sucess if it didn't reach those numbers? I'm curious to know what people think.

The Switch is a successor to both the Wii U and 3DS.  Furthermore it will definitely sell more than 80m.  That seems like a ludicrously conservative estimate to me.  Some things to consider:

1)  The 3DS still has a couple of good years in it.  There are too many kids out there that still need a handheld console and their parents are not going to buy them their own Switch for $300 with very losable joy-cons.  In 2-3 years there will be a cheaper/simpler version of the Switch targeted at kids, which will be when they are ready to take the 3DS off the market.  Anyway even if you are only adding 3DS + Wii U, you are going to need to increase that amount by about 10m.

2)  Thinking that the Switch is only going to get Wii U customers from the home market is extremely naive.  The Gamecube and Wii U were very disappointing consoles that mostly just reached the most devoted Nintendo fans.  At the same time the PS2 and PS4 were respectively tearing up the sales charts.  The PS3 did not tear up the sales charts.  It stalled out of the gate, because the Wii and XBox360 were taking away its customers.  The Wii was an exciting console that people wanted to buy and so is the Switch.  It is extremely naive to think that the Switch will not get any customers from current PS4 owners.  Most of them will get a new console at some point and some of them will choose Switch instead of PS5. 

So taking all of this into account start with 90m, and then figure out what % of PS4 and XB1 customers are going to buy a Switch.  Add that together and you've got what kind of sales it is going to do.

Will it be a successful console?   Of course.  Any Nintendo home console that can sell at least as well as the SNES will be a success.  So they are pretty much guaranteed success.