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fatslob-:O on 12 November 2017
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StarDoor said:

For how much longer are you going to use the same tired arguments and logical fallacies?

1.) 3DS was $170. Switch is exceeding its performance while costing $130 more. Yet, in your mind, this indicates equivalent demand for the product.
2.) NSMB2 and AC:NL were the only blockbusters that 3DS had in 2012, and AC:NL didn't even release anywhere except Japan and South Korea until June 2013. In terms of system sellers, 2011, 2013, and even 2014 have superior lineups. Of course, by this point, 3DS already had a tarnished reputation, so it's laughable that you think Switch will follow the same trajectory.
3.) DS and PS2 were both behind PS4 by the end of their first full fiscal years, yet, as of 16 quarters, both are now ahead. PS2 is ahead by 2M despite not launching anywhere except Japan for the its first three quarters. DS launched similarly to PS4, except with a delayed Q1 launch in Europe instead of Japan, and is ahead by 16.8M. On the other hand, GBA and Wii had much better first years than PS4, but we certianly don't expect PS4 to end up behind those two consoles. Clearly, first year performance tells us little about the differences in lifetime sales between successful platforms. All we can say is that platforms with good sales right off the bat continue to have good sales.

1) I thought rol made the point that price didn't matter in the 3DS's advantage ? You're not going to follow with him in that regard ? 

There's many ways to determine demand but price and demand goes hand in hand. A basic economic theory is that the demand of service/goods that are sensitive to price are said to be elastic ... 

If the 3DS at $170 is just as desirable as the Switch is at $300 then so be it ... 

2) The fact that Nintendo is expecting to ship 16.74M units total for the first fiscal means that the Switch so far is expected to have a similar trajectory to the 3DS. 3DS was hardly what anyone would describe as "tarnished" when it went on to sell 7M units in the last quarter of 2011 according to this sites data so consumers must have forgiven it one way or another ... (Both Switch and 3DS had a similar set of titles yet coincidentally Nintendo are expecting similar market response for no reason ?) 

Also 2014 for the 3DS was fairly "meh" worthy when most of the big titles were just second entries on the same platform so that's why 2012 saw higher hardware sales for the 3DS than 2014 despite the fact the latter had more big releases ... 

3) OK, I concede you have a point that first year sales don't tell much about lifetime sales but at the same time you cannot easily discard the possibility that the Switch might very well only match the 3DS when both had a similar set of games so far in their life but to only end up with similar expectations up to a certain point ...