Next Gen Tech (NGT): STORAGE

[KBG29]

EricHiggin said:
I've commented on this type of storage question before, but ever since, it seems quite clear to me that at the present time, there are simply way to many potential options and too much uncertainty about the life cycle and the storage market. This isn't at all like the last couple of gens, where we knew the storage device would have to be an HDD. Trying to make an educated guess now, would be like batting blindfolded. Mind you, if someone takes a swing now and hits a home run later, it would be pretty impressive and/or lucky.

What it does make me think, is that the potential for this gen to be 'lengthened' or 'shortened', is quite possible. Maybe Pro can last, maybe a Premium is needed or planned, but neither seems all that unlikely. Due to the reasons stated above, it might also make sense to launch next gen earlier than anticipated, offer a base (and/or higher tier) PS5 console, and have a 5 year gen with no upgrades.

A longer current gen means a larger leap next gen, but having to deal with some very outdated tech in the coming years. A shorter current gen means a smaller step next gen, but also a more affordable launch price again. Either way, making this gen 'longer' or 'shorter', makes the PS5 storage decision much easier, and would probably make quite a few other hardware decisions easier as well.

Like this take. We are definitly in sort of a bind. 

If they make the decision to go to PS5 in 2019, then it will be a strange, and short gen, as the tech to blow it out of the water is right around the corner. A Ryzen 2 based PS5, with a ~12Tflop Navi based GPU, 16 - 24GB of RAM, and an HDD, would basically be another 5 years of this gen at 4K with some extra CPU play room. Going this route, would mean PS6 will be needed by 2023 or 2024, but would give other players a lot of room to jump into the market in 2021 - 2023, and greatly outclass them.

If they build a PS4 Premium in 2019, stick with modified Jaguar at 2.7 - 3.0GHz, ~10Tflop GPU with some Navi upgrades, 16GB of RAM, and an HDD. Then they can bring out a worth while PS5 in 2021 or 2022. Something in the ballpark of Ryzen 5 or 6 with 8 - 12 cores, a 20+ Tlops GPU, 128GB of RAM, and an 8 - 32TB SSD (depending on price reduction and capacity). This route to me looks safer, as it gives less of a window for anyone to slide in with a noticably better device. The only company that could try to slide in with this stratagy would be MS, but I think they would have to take a hit on every unit if they tried to slide in, in 2020.

Depending on when we get to 5 or 3nm may also play into this. 7nm will be here in late 2018 or early 2019. If PS4 Premium is done, then the release of 5 or 3nm fabrication will determine when PS5 comes. It also kind of blocks MS from trying to get the jump start, because, they can't do an XB4 in 2020 on 7nm if 5 or 3nm will be available in 2021 or 2022, becuase it would give Sony a massive advantage at the baseline console next gen.

Then there is one more angle to look at. VR. Can Sony hold a strong position in VR with a PS4 Premium and a ~3GHz Jaguar based CPU, or will they have to do a half step generation and release a Ryzen based PS5 in 2019? 4 or 5 years this early into a new format is an eternity. If Jaguar is going to do massive damage to their VR business, then it could be a decision that looses them billions, and a chance to ride VR to Apple, Google, Microsoft like success. 

I know this is a general next gen storage tech discussion, but other tech plays into this as well. As a Sony consumer and share holder I am looking at it from the perspective of PlayStation. If I had to make the decision, I would do a 7nm PS4 Premium, and build a true next gen PS5 with NVMe/m.2 Storage as soon as 5 or 3nm fabrication is ready.