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StarDoor on 19 October 2017
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Ryng_Tolu said:
StarDoor said:

We still have little information that could let us predict Q4, but you're objecting to Q2 as well? If anything, 2.4M is slightly higher than what NPD and Media Create would suggest. By the end of September, Switch was at 2.3 million maximum in the USA (2.6 million maximum in the Americas), and 1.8 million in Japan. To reach those numbers from the previous shipment results:

Americas: 1.95M to 2.60M (+750k)
Japan: 1.12M to 1.78M (+660k)

Even if you assume that Switch in Other regions sold as much as the Americas, which is generally untrue for Nintendo consoles, then that leaves us with lifetime sell-in at 6.86 million at the end of Q2. To reach 2.4 million shipments for the quarter, or 7.1 million cumulative shipments, unsold stock around the world would have to be 240k at minimum. Given how close Switch sell-in and sell-through have been throughout the year, I think 2.4M is close to the high end for Switch shipments in Q2.

You expect Switch to ship the same amount of units of last quarter in America? Because 750,000 is the same as Apr-Jun.

We have estimate for July/August which are 222k July and 215k August, for a total of 437k those 2 months.

Then there is September which is likely close to 300k (we know Switch outsold PS4 in September, which should be at least close to last year 285k, or down just a bit), so we can assume Switch has sold almost 750,000 only in USA. Don't forget America is not only USA, USA is usually between 80 or 90% of total America sales, so 700-750k in USA would be something between 750-950k. I mean, they may have shipped 750k, but that's really the worst scenario, it's most likely in the 850k range or so.

Also, Japan is definitively more than 1.78m. According to Media Create Switch sold 1,784,184 units, so unless you think shipments are lower than sales, you can understand shipments MUST be over that.

Using MC again, by end of June there were less than 1.04 million Switch sold in Japan, so if they shipped a total of 1.12 million, there were over 80k Switch in stock.

Assuming we have something similar to this, but it's probabily even more because we know the shipments for Switch are increased a lot in Japan recently, we have a total of over 1.86 million Switch shipped, i would say probabily something like 1.9 million.

So Japan probabily got 780k Switch this quarter.

You misunderstood what I said. I didn't say 750k and 660k were the literal shipment numbers, I said those were the differences between sell-through at the end of Q2 and sell-in at the end of Q1. You would then add unsold stock to those numbers to get the shipment numbers for the quarter. Switch is still as supply-constrained as ever in Japan, so I doubt that there's a larger amount of unsold stock there than there was in June. In the Americas, USA sell-in was 378k below total shipments, which has probably increased to around 550k as of September. So 2.26M + 550k is 2.81M. As for Other, its sales are usually between the Americas and Japan, although probably closer to Japan at this point.

Americas: 2.81M (+860k)
Japan: 1.86M (+740k)
Other: 2.43M (+800k)
WW: 7.10M (+2.40M)

Now, if PS4 actually did as well this year in the USA as in previous years, then maybe the number for the Americas is too low (I expected Switch to sell 260k in September, based on the same weekly sales rate as in August), but I think this is countered by the Other numbers being too high. VGChartz seems to think that Switch in Europe is selling only 60% of what it's selling in North America, and it's not like RoW is going to make up the difference.