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Ryng on 19 October 2017
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StarDoor said:
Bofferbrauer2 said:

Q2 and Q4 are too low on your prevision, hence why you have to overcompensate by giving Q3 a whooping 7M. You can take a million away from there and distribute it between the other two quarters and it will be much closer to what can be achieved.

We still have little information that could let us predict Q4, but you're objecting to Q2 as well? If anything, 2.4M is slightly higher than what NPD and Media Create would suggest. By the end of September, Switch was at 2.3 million maximum in the USA (2.6 million maximum in the Americas), and 1.8 million in Japan. To reach those numbers from the previous shipment results:

Americas: 1.95M to 2.60M (+750k)
Japan: 1.12M to 1.78M (+660k)

Even if you assume that Switch in Other regions sold as much as the Americas, which is generally untrue for Nintendo consoles, then that leaves us with lifetime sell-in at 6.86 million at the end of Q2. To reach 2.4 million shipments for the quarter, or 7.1 million cumulative shipments, unsold stock around the world would have to be 240k at minimum. Given how close Switch sell-in and sell-through have been throughout the year, I think 2.4M is close to the high end for Switch shipments in Q2.

You expect Switch to ship the same amount of units of last quarter in America? Because 750,000 is the same as Apr-Jun.

We have estimate for July/August which are 222k July and 215k August, for a total of 437k those 2 months.

Then there is September which is likely close to 300k (we know Switch outsold PS4 in September, which should be at least close to last year 285k, or down just a bit), so we can assume Switch has sold almost 750,000 only in USA. Don't forget America is not only USA, USA is usually between 80 or 90% of total America sales, so 700-750k in USA would be something between 750-950k. I mean, they may have shipped 750k, but that's really the worst scenario, it's most likely in the 850k range or so.

Also, Japan is definitively more than 1.78m. According to Media Create Switch sold 1,784,184 units, so unless you think shipments are lower than sales, you can understand shipments MUST be over that.

Using MC again, by end of June there were less than 1.04 million Switch sold in Japan, so if they shipped a total of 1.12 million, there were over 80k Switch in stock.

Assuming we have something similar to this, but it's probabily even more because we know the shipments for Switch are increased a lot in Japan recently, we have a total of over 1.86 million Switch shipped, i would say probabily something like 1.9 million.

So Japan probabily got 780k Switch this quarter.