Amazon U.S. October bestsellers and general Amazon-based discussion

[StarDoor]

Bofferbrauer2 said:

StarDoor said:

For Nintendo to ship 14M this fiscal year, they would need to ship around 7M in the holiday quarter, and I really don't see that happening.

Their overall shipments would have to be something like this:
FY3/2018 NS:
Q1: 1.96M
Q2: 2.40M
Q3: 7.00M
Q4: 2.70M

But Nintendo only managed to ship 6.96 million Wii units in its first-year holiday quarter, and that was when they were shipping over 3 million in the non-holiday quarters.

FY3/2008 Wii:
Q1: 3.43M
Q2: 3.90M
Q3: 6.96M
Q4: 4.32M

I mean, it might be possible if Nintendo really was creating artificial scarcity and they actually stockpiled enough units for normal holiday demand, but I'm not counting on it.

Q2 and Q4 are too low on your prevision, hence why you have to overcompensate by giving Q3 a whooping 7M. You can take a million away from there and distribute it between the other two quarters and it will be much closer to what can be achieved.

We still have little information that could let us predict Q4, but you're objecting to Q2 as well? If anything, 2.4M is slightly higher than what NPD and Media Create would suggest. By the end of September, Switch was at 2.3 million maximum in the USA (2.6 million maximum in the Americas), and 1.8 million in Japan. To reach those numbers from the previous shipment results:

Americas: 1.95M to 2.60M (+750k)
Japan: 1.12M to 1.78M (+660k)

Even if you assume that Switch in Other regions sold as much as the Americas, which is generally untrue for Nintendo consoles, then that leaves us with lifetime sell-in at 6.86 million at the end of Q2. To reach 2.4 million shipments for the quarter, or 7.1 million cumulative shipments, unsold stock around the world would have to be 240k at minimum. Given how close Switch sell-in and sell-through have been throughout the year, I think 2.4M is close to the high end for Switch shipments in Q2.