PS5 Will Release Early 2019 (Opinion)

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EricHiggin said:

E3 2019 at the earliest.

I can see PS4 Premium being a possiblity. The question I have is, even though the publishers will love a 100M+ PS4 audience, if XB launches a year later with a Ryzen/newest GPU, APU, will third party devs simply write the games for the next XB, then make a crappy port for the older PS4 tech? However, if XB does stick with the no more gens plan going forward, then those same third party games would have to be ported for XB1X, which is still Jaguar anyway, so it shouldn't hurt PS4 game quality at all in that case.

The other way to do it, so you don't anger too many PS4 fans by launching next gen "too early", is create two PS5's for launch (iPhone 8 and iPhone X), especially if XB sticks with the no more gens plan. If you could buy a $349 PS5, or $499 PS5 Pro, that should cover most bases. Those who can't or don't want to jump into next gen yet, still can buy a $149 PS4 or $249 PS4 Pro. PS5 needs to be BC though, that is key to this, which I don't see being a problem.

By having two PS5's available at launch, PS can not only cover more bases, but can bring even more customers into next gen even quicker, which should make both systems sales end up more equal than they are now, leading to better support for everyone. It also makes it easier for devs to start to focus more on PS5 only titles, which would work in PS's favor, since those devs would now have to port the games down to just XB1X (and not any PS4's), making those XB1X ports poorer quality most likely, taking away any price advantage it may have then.

The longer PS4 goes on, and the larger the userbase grows, the harder it becomes to get publishers to focus on making games for a next gen system. The last thing PS wants in this scenario, is to have a slow start and a slow sales pace for the first couple years PS5 is out, due to cross gen support. At the same time, PS doesn't want to throw away potential PS4 sales. The way I see it, by late 2019, if your looking to buy a PS4, it's most likely because your waiting for a lower price point, so PS5 if off the table anyway (other than brand new customers looking to buy a PS console). If you didn't jump into the PS4 ecosystem yet but you have the money, then no problem, buy a PS5, because it's BC.

I personally think trying to drag out PS4 until 2021 or 2022 is a little bit short sighted. It would still work, but could mean a much tougher descent from the lofty PS4 peak, to the bottom base that would be the PS5. With a really affordable and professional PS5 model available at launch, the transition would be more like taking a helicopter from the peak, to the lower hill nearby.

Starting fresh will work, as long as the base PS5 is cheap enough at launch, and it's BC. Casual console gamers, the majority of the user base, doesn't care all that much about the specs. As long as PS makes sure the games keep flowing through to PS5, casuals will buy it. PS5 Pro needs to be a big enough leap to make a purchase worthwhile for that audience, hence the $499 price point. With AMD harnessing their Infinity Fabric tech for its GPU's in the future, more TF performance for less money is the plan, just like their Ryzen Threadripper CPU's. (Imagine a 8TF PS5 and 14TF PS5 Pro).

SSD tech can still wait while SSHD or M.2/NVMe tech bridge the gap for now. My guess is that PS5 launches later than E3 2019 but before Jan 2021. 

I do see what you are saying as a possability. PS5 could run from 2019 to 2025, and then PS6 would make the switch to full SSD tech, and significantly more RAM. There are a few things that could advance just based on moving to Ryzen in 2019. Doing so would mean that we would be limited to SSHD or HDD, and most likely 24GB of RAM at the most. On the positive side this would limit the improvements possible over this gen, meaning more CPU should be geared towards higher frame rates and VR. Looking at the negative side of things, the leap may be to small for consumers to deem worthy of upgrading, thus resulting in a slow uptake for PS5. 

As you mentioned though, they do have to be cautious about what Microsoft may do. If they make PS4 Premium in 2019, and MS goes to Ryzen based Xbox in 2020, that would kind of force them to release a PS5 by 2021 with Ryzen in 2021. Depending on the reseption of a possible Ryzen based Xbox in 2020, MS could gain a significant head start. PS5 would have to come in noticably more capable, and at the same price in 2021. 

You also have to consider the games though. Will MS return to making games and buying major 2nd party exclusives, or will they continue to stick to Forza, Halo, and Gears? If MS does not grow their library, Sony may not have a whole lot to worry about. Sony has built a decent stable of 5 - 10+ million sellers over the last decade, that span many different segments of the market, and that may just be enough to keep people locked to PlayStation.

At any rate, this is an extreamly exciting time in games from both a hardware and software perspective. Scalable ecosystems and VR have made everything very exciting. After kind of getting bored with games towards the end of last gen/start of this gen, I have to say, I feel even more excited now than when I was a kid. I am extreamly excited about upcoming games, and can't wait to see what comes of the hardware going forward.