2. Multiple console / household a common phenomenon - NO. A draw of the Wii is that it is a supplement to family activities. Having multiple Wiis / household detracts from that. There will be many multi-Wii households, but don't expect that to account for a small fraction of the Wii sales. DS, by its handheld nature and low price is now showing the number of households that exists for gaming market. To have a significantly larger market than the DS is rather unreasonable
True, but take the following into account: The Wii is real popular in the media and stuff right now, and Nintendo is doing good effort to keep it that way. Seen the cheap price of the Wii, very much households, that wouldn't even consider buying a console as expensive as xbox360/PS3, (which on top of the price are far too high tech looking and difficult in use for people who have just learned how to use the dvd-player) will be buying a Wii. Because it looks fun, because even they can understand and use it, or simply because it's modern to have one. On top of that, families much rather trust their kids with a friendly looking console, that tends to have more all-age games then bloody 18+ games full of violence (or at least the reputation it has less, the Nintendo gamecube for example actually had neigh as much mature as the ps2..). The Wii and Nintendo have a much more appealing reputation to non hardcore gaming people then Sony and Microsoft, which tend to rather frighten off the group with their marketing strategies.
Seen the fact that the hard-core game market is already split into diverse groups (egg Nintendo, Sony, Microsoft, PC, handhelds) the possibilities of winning new customers in this market are small, and the amount of customers you can find in the family market is big. This is going to be a big trump for Nintendo.
3. Wii having a significantly longer life than 5 years. If you consider a possible WiiHD update to be Wii, then it might be stretched out by a year or so. But, historically, Nintendo has not let console gen go > 5-6 yrs. Wii shall be no exception. Console industries is a innovation driven industry, to expect no innovation for > 5-6 yrs is naive.
True, but note that the market I described above cares much less for HD and graphics then the hard-coregamer market does.
