StarOcean said:
Soundwave said:
It's unlikely Trump will win again IMO.
Hard right and hard left voters don't decide elections, it's the middle that does, the middle doesn't care about extreme left/right politics from the supreme court. Trump won the election by a razor thin margin of 70,000 votes from Michigan, Pennslyvania, and Wisconsin, three states that are generally blue.
IMO he won't hold any of those states next time, Democrats will focus hard on the midwest blue strongholds unlike Clinton who took them for granted. Also I think the African American vote was down, which explains a lot of Clinton's losses, but Trump in antagonizing the African American community especially with the NFL and Charlotteville thing is going to find a lot of anger.
Those 70,000 votes flip or those people stay home and Trump is fucked. Beyond that I think a lot of moderate/non-party alligned voters were willing to give him a shot last time as a novelty of a non-politican, but that's going to gone by next election, when you are president for 4 years, you are a politican (and likely one people are starting to get sick of hearing about every day) whether you like it or not.
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There was a reason the African American vote was down: https://arcdigital.media/i-watched-over-100-covert-russian-propaganda-videos-on-youtube-heres-what-i-saw-b854b69762f2
A former federal lawyer, Renato Mariotti, linked this article. Basically saying ads and vids online were discouraging AA people from voting
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In either case, I don't think the AA vote will stay down. People are pissed off and they will come out and there will be greater organization next time in ensuring that. Especially in Michigan and Pennslyvania and Wisconsin. It takes a very small amount of voters for all three to turn back blue. Beyond that though I don't think Trump will have the same enthusiasm, his numbers even with Republicans are already taking a slide. He needs to hold basically every single vote from the last election, I don't see it happening. He has his core supporters, but he didn't win off that. He benefitted from the novelty vote and a less motivated AA voter block.
