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Soundwave on 13 October 2017
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StarOcean said:
Dulfite said:
Trump wasn't elected because of his intelligence or even because of what his actualy beliefs are. He was elected because of three reasons:

1. Millions less democrats voted in the election for Hillary compared to Obama. Republican numbers were about the same as turned out for Mitt Romney. Likely due to all of her connections to Banghazi, the email leaks, and all of those weird suicides of people that were gonna testify against her.

2. Drain the Swamp. Even if it is an idiot doing it, many Americans would rather have an idiot in charge than yet another career politician.

3. Many Republicans that hated Trump still ended up voting for him simply because he pledged to nominate conservatives on the bench with a incredibly popular and publically displayed list. If he, in a couple years, mentions how another 4 years in office will increase the likelyhood he can get another 1-2 justices on the bench, he will likely win again (unless the democrats have another minority group run against him). He may not even personally be against abortion, or may in reality be against religious freedom for business owners, but as long as he does things to fight abortion and protect people's religious freedoms, then people will aboslutely continue to vote for him. The man's actions speak a lot more to his value (from a conservative point of view) than anything his stupid twitter account says.

You summed up how he could win a second term w/ 1 sentence: 

" If he, in a couple years, mentions how another 4 years in office will increase the likelyhood he can get another 1-2 justices on the bench, he will likely win again (unless the democrats have another minority group run against him)". 

They'll vote him in if they can slowly make the US permanetly lean right. 2-3 are likely to leave very soon. So that guarantee will be his ticket

It's unlikely Trump will win again IMO. 

Hard right and hard left voters don't decide elections, it's the middle that does, the middle doesn't care about extreme left/right politics from the supreme court.  Trump won the election by a razor thin margin of 70,000 votes from Michigan, Pennslyvania, and Wisconsin, three states that are generally blue. 

IMO he won't hold any of those states next time, Democrats will focus hard on the midwest blue strongholds unlike Clinton who took them for granted. Also I think the African American vote was down, which explains a lot of Clinton's losses, but Trump in antagonizing the African American community especially with the NFL and Charlotteville thing is going to find a lot of anger and I think there will be higher AA voting rates in Pennslyvania and Michigan especially. 

Those 70,000 votes flip or those people stay home and Trump is fucked. Beyond that I think a lot of moderate/non-party alligned voters were willing to give him a shot last time as a novelty of a non-politican, but that's going to gone by next election, when you are president for 4 years, you are a politican (and likely one people are starting to get sick of hearing about every day) whether you like it or not.