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Zach808 said:
So the Switch is currently at around 2 years of Wii U sales (going by an average of 3m per year) despite being only about 5-6 months old and having no holiday season. I get the feeling that it might outsell the Wii U completely before the first year is over.

Depends. If you mean first year as in by January 1st, definitely not. If you mean by March 3rd, very unlikely, but it will get close.