AngryLittleAlchemist said:
Ugh....dude. It should not be this hard for you to follow a conversation. I'll repost what you said and go, step by step, on why it does not make sense. "CoD will crush Odyssey in every sales catagory. It will have more pre-orders, more sales the first week, and more lifetime sales. " So just to clarify, we're only talking about lifetime sales. My pre-order part was in speculation to the idea that it will outsell the best selling 3D Mario in Japan. I think it's pretty obvious COD will do better initially both in pre-orders and sales. We're clear on that, right? "Galaxy is the highest selling 3D Mario game and it only hit 10 million on the Wii, with a 100 million user install base. The last Black Ops sold 14 million just on PS4 alone. If the Switch winds up selling 130 million units lifetime, and Odyssey becomes a Nintendo Selects title for $20, then it might beat CoD WWII. But that's a really long shot. " See ... this is my problem with you saying "but my comment's main point wasn't about attach rates!" Yes it was, it's literally a *majority* of your comment. My response to this was to say that talking about attach rates like that is extremely flawed. Just because Mario sold 10:100 or 1:10 on the Wii, doesn't mean it would take 130 Switch's sold in order to get Odyssey to beat COD on the PS4. That's not how attach rates work. I then gave the example that Mario Kart 8 Deluxe had an attach rate of 60% on the Wii U, so by your logic it would sell 60 million on Wii. Your response to this, ironically, was that "of course it would have a higher attach rate because it had few system sales and a high amount of hardcore Nintendo fans". Which, quite literally, was my point. Not only that, but Galaxy sold at least 11 million physically so that's not even the right figure you were using. Even then though, Nintendo is getting a consistent record of higher attach rates. Also, the last Call of Duty game did not do 14 million on PS4, it did 7.57 million physically. Even though I expect WW2 to be closer to Black Ops 3 then Infinite Warfare, the COD series has a track record of 7 million ish sales on PS4. And while you might be able to excuse this with "but but but PS4 was still in it's infancy!" it's not unrealistic to think Black Ops 3 will probably be a one and done deal, it will probably be the highest selling COD on PS4 with nothing coming close. Even if WW2 did 12 million or 13 as opposed to 15, that gives Odyssey even more wiggle room then it already needs to beat it out. So let's see ... Galaxy's 11-12 mil plus an additional million or maybe even 1.5 mil from Japan ... Hm ... already looking widely successful. But of course this is just from your example, maybe it won't beat Galaxy! I honestly feel your comment would have just been better if it were simple, if you had just stated "Cod will beat Mario" I don't think anyone would have bothered. But your arguments were quite poor. I'd assume you'd work on argument fundamentals after you changed your guess on Switch lifetime sales from a measely 50M lifetime to 70M in the matter of a few minutes because people pointed out Holidays exist ... lol. I honestly don't get why people think Zelda's userbase will increase by 3-4 million but not Mario's ... like yeah Mario was already super popular ... but it could jump even farther as a super star(lol). |
Fine, if you want to call the argument based on attach rates, then we will say it's based on attach rates. Let's chalk that one up to my lack of sleep yesterday.
"Just because Mario sold 10:100 or 1:10 on the Wii, doesn't mean it would take 130 Switch's sold in order to get Odyssey to beat COD on the PS4. That's not how attach rates work.
I then gave the example that Mario Kart 8 Deluxe had an attach rate of 60% on the Wii U, so by your logic it would sell 60 million on Wii. Your response to this, ironically, was that "of course it would have a higher attach rate because it had few system sales and a high amount of hardcore Nintendo fans". Which, quite literally, was my point. Not only that, but Galaxy sold at least 11 million physically so that's not even the right figure you were using. Even then though, Nintendo is getting a consistent record of higher attach rates."
Your argument here is a reductio ad absurdum. According to you my argument is as follows...
1. Call of Duty had an attach rate of 1:4 on PS4 with 60 million units.
2. Super Mario Galaxy had an attach rate of 1:10 on Wii with 100 million units.
3. If a game has a better attach rate it will sell more units on a console with fewer sales, than a game on a console with higher sales.
Therefore CoD will sell more units than Odyssey.
Your counter argument looks like this...
1. Mario Kart 8 had an attach rate of 6:10 on the Wii U with 14 million units.
2. Mario Kart Wii had an attach rate of 4:10 on the Wii with 100 million units.
3. If a game has a better attach rate it will sell more units on a console with fewer sales, than a game on a console with higher sales.
Therefore Mario Kart 8 will sell more units than Mario Kart Wii.
But Mario Kart 8 did not sell more units than Mario Kart Wii, therefore premise 3 must be wrong.
This all looks fine and dandy from where you are sitting, but that wasn't my complete argument.
1. Either the Switch will outsell the PS4, or it will not.
2. Call of Duty Black Ops III (the closest comparison to CoD WWII) had an attach rate of 1:4 on PS4 alone.
3. Super Mario Galaxy (the closest comparison to Odyssey) had an attach rate of 1:10 on the Wii.
4. If a game has a better attach rate it will *PROBABLY* sell more units on a console with fewer sales, than a game on a console with higher sales.
5. Therefore if PS4 winds up getting fewer lifetime sales than Switch, CoD will *PROBABLY* outsell Odyssey in lifetime sales.
6. Premise 4 implies that there's always a small chance for a game to outsell another game despite attach rates, due to higher console sales, overriding attach rates.
7. Therefore if Switch outsells the PS4 there's a small chance of Odyssey outselling CoD despite attach rates, due to higher console sales overrideing attach rates.
8. Therefore if Switch outsells the PS4 it is unlikely that Odyssey will outsell CoD.
9. A game is extremely unlikley to sell more units than a competing game, on a console with higher attach rates (per these series) *and* higher console sales.
10. Therefore if PS4 outsells the Switch it is extremely unlikely that Odyssey will outsell CoD.
11. Therefore whether or not Switch outsells PS4 it is unlikely that Odyssey will outsell CoD WWII on PS4.
And that was my argument up to the point where it applies to the thread title. I implied an additional argument that since CoD WWII is releasing on other consoles that the total sales of the game across all platforms would crush Odyssey. But that wasn't exactly on topic. The only flaw I see in it is if CoD WWII winds up not being comparable to Black Ops III. For all we know it could wind up being a terrible game, and a dud ala Ghosts. But I think that's unlikely for several reasons I won't go into here.
