| Kerotan said: Instead of bringing up a past ban why don't you put together a good argument to counter my very valid point. |
You haven't provided a good argument in defense of your nonsensical point so there's no obligation to counter it. However if you're so interested in reading such a counter-argument, instead of asking for another why don't you respond to those that have already been written?
For the record, I have no problem with predicting that the Switch will sell more than 80 million or whatever lifetime. My objection is to the principle of adding hardware sales of different platforms in this context, which requires making flawed assumptions about the nature of hardware sales.
It's also just plain stupid. It proposes that we should expect more than 5 million sales in Japan in the system's first 10 months. Nintendo literally can't even ship that many systems to the region because the Switch is too popular in other regions. And if we excuse it for not meeting this insane goal in Japan without adjusting expectations for global lifetime sales, we are just passing the buck to other regions or time frames, which makes the whole thing even dumber. Then you aren't just saying "Switch should outsell 3DS and Wii U combined in the US in a comparable period of time," (for instance, this would be over 4 million for the 3DS and shy of 1.5 million for Wii U over their first 10 months, so about 5.5 million). You'd be inserting a new variable into the equation, now saying "Switch should outsell 3DS and Wii U combined in this time and also make up for its inability to do so in Japan," or Switch(10moUS) = 3DS(10moUS) + WiiU(10moUS) + (3DS(10moJP) - Switch(10moJP)). If you aren't increasing expectations for a region, you're increasing them for a later time frame. This is made much worse when you reach the point in the 3DS life when the XL was released. Then you have to deal with a likely significant number of repeat customers within a single platform, muddying the situation even more.
And this from someone who thinks the Switch will pull it off! That doesn't make your math valid at all! Your math sucks.
