Make your call: how long until Switch exceeds "X1family".

[DonFerrari]

superchunk said:

DonFerrari said:

Considering X1 is already on decline and haven't crossed 31M I find it very difficult that it will more than double in the next 4 years.

X1 has been at a steady ~8.5MM a year. How do you figure its on decline?

This year it's down YOY against previous year, that is what marks a decline... and usually on 4th year and forward is decline territory. PS4 ins on marginal growth YOY, but will probably close the year near to flat and next year start declining unless Sony really go for deep cuts.

Doing average of the 4 years doesn't give you the real yearly sales.

eva01beserk said:

DonFerrari said:

Considering X1 is already on decline and haven't crossed 31M I find it very difficult that it will more than double in the next 4 years.

Thats the real question here, how far the x1 family will go, then see how fast the switch will pass that.

Like you I belive its crazzy that some think it will keep selling the same or more than it did the last 4 years. I belive 50M is the highest it can go. COnsidering the lack of exclusivess coming to it. This will be its peak year and crosing 8m for it seems far fetch even with the X coming.

So next year with switch suply cranked up and x1 declining, I belive a good 3:1 ratio to start and with in 2020 the switch will surpass the x1 family. Probaby early 2020.

I think X1 have a change to end between 50 and 55M.

My guess is between 3 and 4 years for Switch to overtake.

Paul said:
2 years, the financial experts are predicting 130 million lifetime sales. Will follow a handheld sales curve.you can't argue with financial experts. 31 million in the peak year. Credit suisse report.

By financial experts Sony would have closed doors circa 2014. And considering Patcher expertiness I would say most users here are better predictors.

AlfredoTurkey said:

Mr Puggsly said:

Well lets ignore generations because they kinda don't matter when 9th gen begins in what may be the middle of the 8th gen. Wii U was scrapped faster than probably intended because it was a sales disaster.

Dreamcast WAS competing with PS1 and it shared games. Technically, Dreamcast competed with PS1 longer than PS2 if you look at release dates and when Sega threw in the towel. Sega gave up virtually one year after PS2 released, about 6 months in the US.

This isn't about a fair fight. People are simply guessing when Switch COULD surpass X1's userbase. Hence, does the Switch have enough momentum to surpass the X1 and if so how quickly.

In the grand scheme, it doesn't really matter. Not because these are platforms of different generations, but because these devices appeal to primarily different audiences. Hence, even if the userbase of X1 and Switch was equal, their top selling software is going to be very different. So both platforms succeed with primarily different audiences.

It's like two men competeing in a race in which one man gets a 3 mile head start. It makes ZERO sense.

You may think it don't, but look at the Ferrari video showing a stock car vs sport ferrari vs F1. They will all start racing at different time (distance between) with the F1 closing a little in the lead.

It makes even less sense to compare X1X to Switch because we know that X1X LTD sales will probably be less than Switch 1 or 2 year sales (depending on their strategy with X1X).

Azzanation said:

DonFerrari said:

He is a master at it... as someone said, don't try to discuss with someone (words that can't be written here), because when you descend to his level you'll lose, because he is an expert in that level.

No one said the game is dead. What we are saying is that since Halo 5 already launched on the console (and MCC before) there is little to reason to expect a big boost from Halo 6 (even if it sold 10M). You try to find illogical things to defend a point that is impossible to defend.

I would bet that if we go back further enough we can find other predictions of yours like X1 obliterating PS4 in sales, or that after DX12 came to X1 it would be stronger than PS4 and it would outsell it.

And no, being the 3rd best selling doesn't mean much at all. PS3 is still the third best selling Playstation, still it isn't regarded as a sucess. And was a decline on PS HW sales.

No one also said Halo 6 is certain to sell less than Halo 5, but that Halo is on a decline tendency (that may have a small up bump), so it's more reasonable to expect it to not give a big boost than for it to give a big boost.

But please enlighten us with your expectations for X1 sales, X1X sales, and how much of a boost will SoT and Halo 6 give (separately)... like weekly sales on month X to Y will be about Z and after Halo 6 they will bump to W.

Because that is what SYSTEM SELLERS do. They raise the weekly sale baseline for a susteined time, or give a very big bump in a few weeks. That is basically also what price cuts does. you compare the average sale of let's say the year before, then see how much it sold in the 2-4 weeks after the price cut to see the punctual boost, and then monitor the other 30 weeks to see how much the baseline improved.

And looking at that the bump given by SoT and Halo 6 will be neglible.

Gran Turismo is still expected to be a system seller (GT5 sold over 12M and GT6 over 5M), but I don't expect GT Sport to improve PS4 sales by more than 1M on itself even if it cross 10M SW sold. And that is because the platform is already mature (even if no other GT have released).

I doubt very much that SoT will sell more than Forza, but does year releases of Forza boost X1 sales? Nope. The first FM and FH already gave the boost the franchise would give.

What logic is that based calendar only?

So Switch being weaker than X1 is on a next generation against it, but X1X running exactly the same games (back and forward compatibility) is alone in the gen against Switch? And how that makes it fair?

No mate, i think it's just funny your negatively towards the X1 brand. You want to know the truth? I couldnt care less if Xbox sells extremly well or not. However unlike you and others in this thread i dont labelled the impossible. Dont underestimate the Halo fanbase and Halo is a system seller regardless what you guys choose to think. I see the decline theory you guys use and thats just being 1 dementional. Halo 5 didnt do what it should have done due to its game focus. However if Halo 6 is to do worse than it has to sell less than 5m which i would be extremly suprised. 

Iv worked in buisness for many years and i have lived though every console generation ever. I have see alot. If a business is under there sales and lose customers yearly they dont simply close the doors and just ride the wave of shame. They find newer ways to bringing those customers back something 343 is working on with Halo 6 hence why they have been quiet about it. Nintendo did the exact same thing with the Switch from WiiU.

I laugh at the decline method. 

All in all i enjoy debates with people because people seem to be so sure of themselves. 

Go on find post of me saying other things. Message me privately when you do. You will be disapointed and probably find heaps of predictions iv been right about.

Lets not turn this thread into about me either. 

Don your history isnt great so i would be very careful ;)

Anyway you know where to find me. Leave this thread alone and let it get back on topic.

If you consider being realistic as being negative ok call what you want. We aren't labelling it impossible, you are the one labelling it the most likely scenario, we are labelling it the least likely. Halo 6 may sell more than 5, no one said it's impossible. What we said is that the series is on decline, that is undeniable (yet you try diverse excuses to say it isn't happening).

Do you even know the concept of system seller? And I asked you about how much it would boost X1 sales and you said anything about it.

So I hope you do better on your work than you do in the Forums. Yes companies try to regrow their sales when they pass mature and enter decline, some fail and some get better. But you aren't putting anything that justify the second being the case except that "you expect they to sell much better".

So you like to discuss because OTHER people are always so sure, where have I seen this in this thread?

I don't care about you bringing my history here, put my predictions that gone completely wrong and with unresoanable claims.

And about GTS you are such a something to say you brought the point and didn't get an answer when I was the one that brought and said that even if GTS manage to outsell GT6 it won't be a big system seller.

I have no idea in what parallel universe I could find you and where your reasoning makes sense.