When will the Switch outsell 3DS (lifetime)?

[flashfire926]

StarDoor said:

rolltide101x said:

Ok, 1st off it is at 5 million. (Neither of us know how the demand or supply will be for the rest of the year). I said the same thing about the Wii U (which sold less than I predicted....)

 

But I wil say this it WILL NOT go over 40 million for a fact. Rather it ends up closer to 25 or 40 is up for grabs

It was 5.4 million as of the end of July, and it's more like 6.5 million as of right now in the middle of September. Also, do you seriously think that 11 million isn't a reasonable number for the entire year? After selling 5.4 million in five months, you think it'll sell less than that over the next five months, despite those months including the holiday season?

And who cares if the Wii U sold less than you predicted? Nintendo sold 255 million units of hardware in the seventh generation with their best-selling home console and best-selling handheld ever. People on VGChartz like to make predictions based on nothing but short-sighted "trends," so of course people like you were going to overestimate Wii U and 3DS. Wii and DS were huge, so why wouldn't their successors be?

Now we're seeing it in reverse with Switch: The eighth generation had Nintendo's worst-selling home console and worst-selling handheld ever, so people ignorantly thought that Nintendo would keep declining, without even considering the actual factors that lead to success or failure in the console market. That's why the average prediction for Switch here on VGChartz has gone from around 35 million in January (when people were just looking at Nintendo's poor 8th gen performance) to over 65 million today (now that we have concrete numbers and overwhelming evidence of Switch's popularity).

Clearly, though, some people just ignore the sales data entirely, which leads them to make predictions like "under 40 million." You will be proven wrong in 2020 at the latest.

Instead of getting pissed, I think you should take advantage of this opportunity make a risk-free bet with him. Over 40 million switch sales equals you win  :P