Make your call: how long until Switch exceeds "X1family".

[eva01beserk]

DonFerrari said:

superchunk said:
XboxOne will likely remain for sell in some form until Switch is about 4 yrs old.

I would guess that at the current rate, Xbox One family will top out around 65MM.

I would guess that if Switch can remain popular, take over portable titles, become 100% solution for 1st party, and get continuous 3rd party support (this does not mean AAA parity), then it will top out around 80MM. Why only 80MM when revisions of the other consoles allowed them to sustain high yearly sales? Switch will be impacted more from the new gen hardware in MSony at the same time and I'm betting some of the AAA launch titles won't be on the latest version of Switch at that time. Thus Nintendo will need to put out its 3rd Switch revision (Switch 2) which would then count as a separate console family.

Where these cross would likely be in Switch's 5th year.

Considering X1 is already on decline and haven't crossed 31M I find it very difficult that it will more than double in the next 4 years.

Thats the real question here, how far the x1 family will go, then see how fast the switch will pass that.

Like you I belive its crazzy that some think it will keep selling the same or more than it did the last 4 years. I belive 50M is the highest it can go. COnsidering the lack of exclusivess coming to it. This will be its peak year and crosing 8m for it seems far fetch even with the X coming.

So next year with switch suply cranked up and x1 declining, I belive a good 3:1 ratio to start and with in 2020 the switch will surpass the x1 family. Probaby early 2020.