Make your call: how long until Switch exceeds "X1family".

[caffeinade]

Pemalite said:

caffeinade said:
10 mil 2017
15 mil 2018
18 mil 2019

Xbox One is about 30 million now, I don't think it can do 5 million per year for 2018 and 2019.

Within three years.

I think 2018 might be a decent year with 2019 being a massive bust, 2017 would have been a much larger failure, but the Xbox One X should help it out, especially over the Holiday period.

2018 could potentially have: Crackdown, Halo 6, Forza, Gears 5, Sea of Thieves, State of Decay 2, Ori and the will of wisps and maybe a few other titles which  might get announced before then, the Xbox One X might help improve numbers slightly as well.

I just don't see anything of value for 2019. No new hardware, no new big games due to multi-year development cycles...

With that, Switch is not showing any signs of slowing, if Nintendo sorts out it's supply drama's, they might do significantly better than current projections would hint at.

I'm going to go with 4 years. Only because 2018 could be better than expected, with the potential for it to blow out to 5 years if Nintendo doesn't get supply under control.

Aside from being a halo product, I don't expect much in the way of direct sales with the XxX.

I think we could see the Switch, or a version of it at the price of about $200 before the end of 2020.
That would be a large driver in sales especially combined with Pokemon, natural celebrity endorsement, and enhanced visibility.
The Switch is finally the console that could potentially break into the mainstream in a good way for the industry (ie, not like the Wii, or as a media hub like the PS2).
The weakest part of the visual design is how it looks in the dock, everything else (like a big vent at the top) can and should be nullified by a Switch revision.

Anyway the numbers are wild guesses that I came up with on the spot.