Prediction - PS3-PS4 and X360-XOne last big performance spec leap

[Bofferbrauer2]

fatslob-:O said:

Bofferbrauer2 said:

Keep in mind that to reach 12.5 TFlops, the RX Vega 64 has to be running at top speed of 1550Mhz - which it can't keep on most Graphics cards without throttling to not exceed it's power draw target of 295W. A console graphics chip needs to run at clock speeds much closer to it's sweet spot, which in Vegas case is in the 1100-1200Mhz range, at which point it's doing less than 10 TFlops. So in order to achieve 15 TFlops the chip would need to become both bigger (expensive) and have it's sweet spot at much higher clock speeds. Unless they can reach that while consuming less than 150W, which is half of what it consumes right now, 15 TFlops won't be possible. Considering that Polaris didn't manage to half the consumption of Hawaii for the same calculation speed while being 2 GCN Architectures and a jump from 28 to 14nm ahead, I have a hard time believing this to happen.

The 12TFlops you're expecting are far more manageable, hence why I'm expecting about as much. In any case, due to diminishing returns however, the visible difference between Pro and 5 will be pretty small in most cases

RX Vega 64 only has a die size of 486mm^2@14nm and PS4 Pro APU has a die size of ~348mm^2@16nm so 15 TFlops is very possible with 7nm (even better, 5nm will probably be ready for next gen consoles) and EUV ... 

Don't forget the PS4 Pro APU includes the CPU, and the Jaguar CPU is very small. A Ryzen-based CPU part would be much bigger even with just half the cores

5nm will be problematic unless the PS4 releases 2021 earliest. While 5nm will probably start production in 2019-2020, the yield rates will be atrocious at first, so not really financially viable. As for EUV, well it's initial investment will be enormous and somehow the fab has to make that money back, which means more expensive wafers and thus more expensive chips. It's actually the main reason by now EUV hasn't been implemented yet, the technical difficulties have been largely solved now.

In any case, TDP will be a problem with Vega, maybe Navi can change that, but I doubt it personally