DélioPT said:
Peach_buggy said:
I think you are overthinking this far too much. Switch is a runaway success right now and that's with it being heavily supply constrained. We don't even know what the actual demand for this thing is, due to all of the major territories selling outof stock almost as soon as it gets them. Notwithstanding whatever Nintendo brings out next year, there is obviously pent up demand for the console and the titles already out for it. Until we actually know the actual demand of the Switch, once Nintendo has met it, then we will have a better idea on the momentum. For now, simply meeting demand will drive momentum.
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Don't get me wrong, but you are focusing too much on the short term success.
It's true that Switch's current appeal and unmet demand will mean that 2018 will still be very good, but there are still a lot unknowns that can affect the coming years.
For example, we don't know how 3rd party support will be. Not just in terms of quantity, but also in terms of system sellers;
We don't know how many system sellers Nintendo will come up with each year;
Games like Pokemon sell a ton of SW and HW but we shouldn't ignore that the proposition (just looking at 3DS' case) has been 170+50 or, with 2DS, 99+50 for the latest Pokemon game, but with Switch it will be 300+60, in the States and 329+60, in Europe and Japan.
That means 150/220 vs a 360/390 proposition for your usual handheld only consumer. In other words, your mom or dad, to buy the latest Pokemon game with a console, for their kid, will be asked to pay, at least, 140 more.
How will the market react to this proposition?
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I'm focusing on the short term because your original point was referring to Switch momentum in 2018. Personally i'm not worried about Switch momentum either long or short term. I think it will take the whole of 2018 to catch up with demand, then from 2019 onwards i see the 3ds family being discontinued, then Nintendo will go after the 3ds-centric crowd with 3ds like titles, such as Mario vs. Donkey kong, Tomodachi life etc. Lots more big hitters to come.
