Peach_buggy said:
DélioPT said:
What we have seen for next year is, so far, very poor (Kirby, FE and Yoshi).
No doubt those games will sell well, specially FE. But, what system sellers will we have next year? It's not a new Zelda, MK9? Too soon. Smash? Probably. 2D Mario? Probably. Animal Crossing? Probably.
Nintendo always had evergreen titles. It's not something that, by itself can spell success. MK8 did amazing on a console that sold very poorly, for example.
A continuous flow of system sellers is needed to attract the Nintendo fanbase but to attract the non-Nintendo gamer.
I have no doubts Pokemon will sell a ton of Switchs, but i'm still a bit unconvinced on how many copies it can sell and how much it can do for Switch.
Of course that it's too soon to say when we don't even know what it's competition will be (from Sony and MS).
How GBA reaching HW and SW levels as fast as it did when compared to 3DS or 3DS+Vita, isn't relevant?
You have two machines against one and even then they needed more time to sell as many systems as GBA.
Heck, even if you take out the 15 million consoles GBA sold after DS came out, GBA still kicks 3DS' ass easily, HW and SW wise.
There are a lot of titles that can spur sales a week, maybe two, when they come out, but that's not what we are talking about.
We are talking about those games that sell a lot of HW and can even raise the bar for HW sales for weeks and weeks; those type of games that people wait to come out before they buy the console.
Nintendo were the ones who claimed it's not a successor to both Wii U and 3DS, they even said they aren't thinking about a successor for 3DS - something they haven't said about Wii U - and when they market it as home console gaming on the go, exactly how do they see it themselves as a portable? What did they say that makes you think that? Because all signs point at them treating it like it's a home console (with portability).
|
I think you are overthinking this far too much. Switch is a runaway success right now and that's with it being heavily supply constrained. We don't even know what the actual demand for this thing is, due to all of the major territories selling outof stock almost as soon as it gets them. Notwithstanding whatever Nintendo brings out next year, there is obviously pent up demand for the console and the titles already out for it. Until we actually know the actual demand of the Switch, once Nintendo has met it, then we will have a better idea on the momentum. For now, simply meeting demand will drive momentum.
|
Don't get me wrong, but you are focusing too much on the short term success.
It's true that Switch's current appeal and unmet demand will mean that 2018 will still be very good, but there are still a lot unknowns that can affect the coming years.
For example, we don't know how 3rd party support will be. Not just in terms of quantity, but also in terms of system sellers;
We don't know how many system sellers Nintendo will come up with each year;
Games like Pokemon sell a ton of SW and HW but we shouldn't ignore that the proposition (just looking at 3DS' case) has been 170+50 or, with 2DS, 99+50 for the latest Pokemon game, but with Switch it will be 300+60, in the States and 329+60, in Europe and Japan.
That means 150/220 vs a 360/390 proposition for your usual handheld only consumer. In other words, your mom or dad, to buy the latest Pokemon game with a console, for their kid, will be asked to pay, at least, 140 more.
How will the market react to this proposition?
