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Miyamotoo on 28 August 2017
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StarDoor said:
RolStoppable said:

The financial results for Q2 of the current fiscal year will bring a lot of clarity. Q1 was subject to before the first production increase could arrive, because plans for increased production weren't formed until after the strong response to the presentation in January. The logistics for such an undertaking take around six months under normal circumstances, so an increase wasn't going to materialize until July.

18m certainly sounds too high, but an adjustment to Nintendo's original forecast of 10m should happen in late October.

I don't doubt a production increase, but the fact that Nintendo has consistently stated that the production increase is already accounted for in their projection is preventing me from getting my hopes up. The Wii was also supply constrained to a large degree, with Nintendo trying to increase production throughout the fiscal year.

Wii:
Dec 2006: 3.19M
Mar 2007: 2.65M (FY: 5.84M)
Jun 2007: 3.43M
Sep 2007: 3.90M
Dec 2007: 6.96M
Mar 2008: 4.32M (FY: 18.61M)

The Wii started off with a higher production capacity than the Switch. If the Switch gets the exact same percentage increases in production:

Jun 2017: 1.96M
Sep 2017: 2.23M (+17%)
Dec 2017: 3.98M (+78%)
Mar 2018: 2.47M (-38%)
FY: 10.64M

Or if you use the larger March to June increase for Q2 of FY3/2018:

Jun 2017: 1.96M
Sep 2017: 2.54M (+29%)
Dec 2017: 4.53M (+78%)
Mar 2018: 2.81M (-38%)
FY: 11.84M

Unless they've been holding back a massive amount of stock for the holiday quarter, I can't see them going beyond 12 million for the fiscal year, and I find it unlikely that they're holding back more than what they did for the Wii. The 3DS was only able to ship 8.35 million in its first holiday quarter because Nintendo was completely insane and thought that the 3DS at $250 would sell better than the DS. At least 2 million of those shipments were supposed to be for Q1 and Q2, but there was so much stock leftover that retailers didn't want to stock any more units. In the case of the Switch, it's the opposite: Nintendo massively underestimated it. Looking at the historical data, when Nintendo has a supply constrained console, holiday sales make up a much smaller portion of annual sales.

Yes, I definitely expecting something with line of those two predictions for FY. And I agree, if Nintendo has more stocks they could sell more in any case, especially during holiday season.