Anti-Nintendo people claimed the Wii failed when sales declined to under 10 million annually during its 6th year on the market.
What will the Switch do? It really depends on Nintendo's business model going forward and how it's measured. The Switch architecture is built for scalability and different different form factors - you can have devices the size of a small phone. It would be kind of silly for Nintendo to ignore the potential here. So I would say more powerful "Switches" in different form factors before 2020. It's unlikely the base hybrid Switch doing under 40 million in the first 3 years given the typical cycle for Nintendo which has almost always seen a year 3 hardware sales peak with a year 4 sales sticking close to year 3; in other words 10 million year 1, 17 million year 2, and 21 million year 3. Now the question is, would an XL or Mini model with much more power be considered a new console? Hard to say. In the end, either way it's cut, Switch is already heading to be Nintendo's 4th best selling home console at the minimum, and if other models are considered, it could get to DS range. Imagine a dockable handheld Switch with streetpass and other handheld/mobile centric features. Nintendo needs to keep their minds on how they can make something uniquely Nintendo that people are going to see as attractive and intriguing to play - like the Wii, DS, Gameboy, and NES before, the Switch is the latest in that tradition.
What Nintendo shouldn't do is try to be another PlayStation for kids, like they did with the cube. Nintendo needs to stay sexy like they've been with the Wii, DS Lite, and Switch. Switch Lite, that might be interesting - where Lite is only its cosmetic approach, but with enhanced features and performance under the hood.
I describe myself as a little dose of toxic masculinity.
