If Nintendo can get their supply problems sorted out then I think it could reach 1m by the end of the year. What makes me optimistic about that are five different things -
- It's a new console and people are especially motivated to buy games for the Switch. If people are questioning that, just look at Ultra Street Fighter II which is probably going to break 1m with most of those being full-priced purchases despite it being a glorified port of a 10-year old game (which can be purchased for a fraction of the price of USFII), which in turn was an enhanced port of a (now) 25 year-old game.
- I think a lot of people buying the Switch are core gamers who aren't necessarily fans of Nintendo games and because of that, 3rd party games (western 3rd party games in particular) have a shot at doing better than on previous Nintendo platforms.
- Nintendo has been really advertising Skryim and making it seem like a huge deal
- There's a noticeable parallel with a significant Nintendo game on the Switch (BotW), so people who have played, finished and enjoyed that game might be motivated to give Skyrim a shot.
- Portability
The 3rd party games I'm more concerned about on the Switch are NBA2K18, FIFA and WWE2K18. If those games can do good numbers, it would prove to 3rd parties that there are more users on the Switch than the typical Nintendo userbase that only buys exclusives.
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