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The Wii had a superb first year, but that was also it's best one in Japan. If the Switch can keep up with the Wii's first 2 years (3.6 and 3.0 millions), it's almost guaranteed it will outsell it handily as the Wii dropped off a cliff already in it's third year there (2.0M)

While the Switch might sell as well as the 3DS for a while, I don't really see it keeping up with the 3DS' crazy holiday sales in it's first year. But at this cruise speed it might catch up on DS and Wii during that time if Odyssey pushes the console far enough - given enough console supply of course