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LethalP on 10 August 2017
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Here's what we know about PS4:

  1. The PS4 sold 53.4 million by January 1st 2017.
  2. It shipped 57.1 million in the same time meaning 2.7 million PS4's were on shelves at the beginning of this year.
  3. It sold 60.4 million units by June 11th 2017 meaning it sold 7 million units in 5 months and 11 days.
  4. It shipped 63.3 million units by June 30th meaning it shipped 6.2 million in 6 months. (This is why shipment and sold through numbers paint a different picture)
  5. According to NPD leaks, it has sold 1,780,423 units in the US in 2017 as of June 30th.

Here's what we think we know about Xbox One:

  1. EA estimated that the current gen consoles (WiiU not included) had sold 79 million units between them as of January 2017. Subtracting PS4's 53.4 million from 79 million leaves 25.6 million. Could this be Xbox Ones sales numbers as of the beginning of this year?
  2. According to NPD leaks, Xbox One had sold 988,946 units in the US in 2017 as of June 30th. Roughly 55% of what PS4 sold in the same time frame.
  3. Oddly enough, according to VGChartz platform totals, Xbox One has sold roughly 55% of it's total units in the US.

Using these metrics we can build a clearer picture of just how the Xbox One is faring against the PS4 in 2017 so far, as well as giving a good guess at it's total life time sales derived from the most accurate sources we have.

So first off, if the Xbox One failed to muster up a million in the US (more than half of it's overall market) in 6 months, can we assume it was at less than 2 million world wide in the same time? If we go by the 55% in US rule, this could put Xbox One at around 1.8 million overall for 2017 as of June 30th. A far cry from PS4's 7 million as of June 11th.

Now if we are willing to rock with EA's numbers of 25.6 million Xbox Ones as of January 2017, this would put Xbox Ones total at 27.4 million on June 30th. This may be undershooting it, and it hinges on the idea that EA's estimates were more accurate than VGChartz and the optimistic Xbox faithful, and that the NPD leaks were legit (though they are yet to be disputed). But looking at what info we have, there's nothing that paints the picture that the Xbox One has sold even 2 million units in the first 6 months of 2017. It's apparent that these two consoles are in a completely different sales class, more than what most Xboxers would be willing to admit. Anyway does anyone have all the NPD numbers since 2013? Surely we can estimate Xbox Ones sales using that?

I'm thinking 28 million Xbox Ones sold as of now, maybe 62 million PS4's. I predict 7 million Xbox Ones, 20 million PS4's for 2017.