If XBX fails, what next?

[Mr Puggsly]

Shadow1980 said:

Mr Puggsly said:

Well Phil has more than implied that's the direction they're considering. Why wouldn't incremental upgrades be viable? As long as consumers can play the latest games on a reasonably priced machine then they will be happy.

Again, X1X is a powerful and expensive device at launch. But it could be the cheap option to play 9th gen games in 2021.

If MS just goes head on with Sony again with no price edge, that may not end well for MS.

We've had instances of a platform getting a full spec upgrade before the Pro and X1X came along. While they've mostly been a handheld thing (the last full spec upgrade for a home system was the Japan-only SuperGrafx), there's been enough of them to have a generally good idea of what to expect when it comes to how they affect sales. They have always had a similar effect to what we've seen from price cuts and non-spec hardware revisions (i.e., slim models and other similar form factor changes/improvements). But such things don't simply keep sales going forever. Every platform without exception has exhibited a growth-peak-decline trajectory in sales, and no amount of price cutting or new models has kept the inevitable decline at bay. It's the primary reason generations exist in the first place. The idea that simply having a modest bump in specs every 2-3 years will keep a platform going indefinitely is something that is not backed up by the data.

There are very good reasons why we have discrete generations that are a clean break with preceding platforms, and there are good reasons to think that attempting to circumvent this cycle through iterative upgrades to an existing platform will not work to keep the platform viable in the long run. There are also good reasons to believe that the Pro and X1X are one-off upgrades that exist for two main reasons: 1) to take advantage of 4K TVs and VR, and 2) to attempt to extend the current generation.

Furthermore, we know that Sony is making a proper PS5, not a PS4 Pro 2 or whatever. Assuming that the base XBO and X1X (or at least the latter) will be forward compatible with a hypothetical "Xbox One X 2" runs smack dab into the reality that is the PS5. Third-party developers are obviously going to be developing for the PS5 and will eventually abandon the PS4 after a couple of years' worth of a dwindling number of cross-gen games. Those developers are not going to be held back by continuing to develop games that need to be made compatible with older versions of the Xbox One platform. By time the PS5 turns two, most notable third parties will have ceased making any AAA games for the PS4 and PS4 Pro, and consequently the XBO and X1X. Sony sticking to the conventional and proven console cycle throws a monkey wrench into any theories of Xbox abandoning distinct generations for an iterative "iGadgets" model.

If MS is going to stay relevant in the console space, they are going to keep sticking to traditional generations as we've known them.

Your examples are bad and no upgrade has ever been as significant or shown long term potential like the X1X. Like I said before, the specs upgrade is so significant that it should be able to handle 9th gen content fairly well. Especially if 9th gen hardware is a relatively modest upgrade at $399.

I dont think X1X is the the end for the X1 brand. Frankly, Sony and MS may both blur the lines of console generation.