| torok said: That's a given. I also think it will do better than 60M. I dont' get why people forecast numbers from the X1 (and also for the PS4, a lot of guys here think it won't do 100M) that would basically only work if sales of those systems took a nosedive last year with no reasonable explanation. And I mean, a huge nosedive, way more than the Wii did after 2012, more than what a console does when a sucessor arrives. It's a type of prediction that should not be posted on a salwes website where most posters make better guesses than the so-called "professional analysists". |
I also recall a lot of people here over optimistically forecasting that PS3 would easily sell over 100 million and pass Wii to finish as the 7th gen leader when all was said and done. This was being said here as late as 2013 when PS4 was already on the market. 4 years later, the PS3 fell about 15 million short of those predictions. Don't take this as me saying the PS4 won't sell 100 million. I'm just pointing out that under-estimating and over-estimating work both ways.
Personally, no I don't think the XBox One will sell 50 million. It's sales have peaked already, so it's all downhill from here on out. The people who multiply years at a time by forecasting 6 million a year for the next 4 years, that's not how it works. That's the same kind of logic as the people who, in 2013 when PS3 was 26 million behind Wii, were forecasting 6 million PS3 sales per year over the next 4 years will close that gap. Sales don't stay fixed like that in the back nine of the average consoles lifespan. Look at the 2nd half of the PS3's lifespan for example: 2011 (14.7 mil), 2012 (12.1 mil), 2013 (8.2 mil), 2014 (3.5 mil). The first full year the PS4 was on sale, the PS3 lost over half it's sales from the year before, and was down 3/4 from where it was the year before PS4 launched.
For the XBox One to do 60 million as you anticipate, I think it would have to show a year on year increase in sales this year, which I don't see happening. It's sales had already plateaued when it was just contending with PS4 and Wii U. With the Switch on the market now, I don't see how anyone could forecast an uptick in XBox One sales over what it has shown already. And no, I don't think the XBox One S is going to change that. Once sales drop to a certain point, I think Microsoft will have to move onto the next platform and then yes, XBox One sales will indeed take a full on nosedive. And, I say this as someone who owns an XBox One but has barely turned it on since getting a Switch at launch. (I'm disenfranchised enough with Microsoft this gen that PS5 might be my next console purchase.)
