Considering Paper Mario for every other Nintendo system has only done 200k it's first month, I don't see SPM doing much differently. 200k first month, 700k total. :) As for Wii Sports, in Japan, I think it'll do no less than 5m, with Wii Play somewhere near 3.5m. Wii Play in the US should get to 1m or more.
Back from the dead, I'm afraid.