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MGS4 bundle is actually quite better than GT5P bundle as GT5P wasn't full priced game.
We can say that it's as good as GTAIV bundle but it's not like GTA bundle didn't help PS3 sales a lot. It almost doubled PS3 sales (and X360 sales also) then week it was released and in UK sales went up 127% for PS3 hardware and 125% for X360.
I think that MGS4 will have a little weaker openning than PS3 version of GTAIV but on the other hand it is an exclusive title. So some people with X360 but without PS3 will be more likely to buy bundle with MGS than they were when GTAIV bundle was released.

For comparision purposes it may also be noted that GTAIV had 5 days to sell in its first week and MGSIV will have 3 days (most games in Europe have only 2 days).

@Eagle: No, NG2 had 2 days. Just like almost all games released in Europe. Judging from UK first week I wouldn't expect much from this title in Europe.