VGPolyglot said:
torok said:
North Korea is actually a big problem. They aren't a threat in the sense that they could do a lot of damage to the US. However, they could land a lucky nuclear strike against a minor US target or a supercarrier. That would demand a massive response from the US and could result in tensions with China.
China supports North Korea because otherwise they would have a US-allied Korea with american military bases right in their backyard. And they don't want to lose that, so even if NK was liberated, I wouldn't be surprised if China intended to replace the current system with a puppet president. That would result in conflicts with the US, and neither country want that kind of hassle.
If the US enters on a conflict with NK, the Kim Jong-un could opt for nuclear strikes against US allies, like South Korea or Japan. Heavy civilian losses for US allies because of a conflict between the US and someone else would have disastrous results for your external politics (like "hey, US can't defend their allies").
My point is that NK obviously can't defeat or even do more than a scratch on the US (and that is with a lot of luck). But they can "die shooting", severly damaging US allies. That could make the US lose allies and end up with a much weaker global position. A diplomatic problem with China could bring economic issues. That's the problems with the NK situation: the best case for the US is minimal or zero gain, while the worst case scenarios would be a big PITA.
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China doesn't just want North Korea to stay because they don't want a US-backed Korea, they are also afraid of the massive refugee influx that'd occur if the government collapsed.
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If North Korea collapses which is highly likely to happen in the next 50 years the country most affected by it would be South Korea not China. Most refugees would go to South Korea plus the majority of the population in the North would be for the two Koreas to reunite which would be a huge financial burden for South Korea.
