Prediction: PS4 - 130 million Hardware, 1.6 billion Software lifetime

[freedquaker]

LethalP said:

The PS4 is basically beasting. It's the fundamental game console of choice this gen. 60.4 million hardware and 487 million software in it's first 3 and a half years. For it to sell half a billion software in that time is actually insane. But get this, the first two years of a consoles life is normally the smallest in software sales due to the low install base. So it's not unwise to assume that the PS4 might actually eclipse 1 billion software in the next 3.5 years considering consoles sell more software in their second half of life. And will go on to do 1.4 billion lifetime, easily I say.

As for the hardware, It'l hit 100 million by 2020. And it's going to sell for $149 to $99 after that making it an impulse purchase with it's very impressive library by then. Trust me, it'l hit 130 million. I'd bet this accout but honestly it isn't up to much anyway soo.

Do you agree? Or am I talking shite?

100 million by 2020 is a MASSIVE underestimation. The console sold over 60 million in 3.5 years and we are exactly 3.5 years from the end of 2020. For all metrics, consoles sell far more in the second half of the year, and PS4 has sold more than 7-8 million in the first half of 2017 (61-62 million by the end of June), bringing the absolute minimum sold by the year's end at 70+ million. An educated guess would put the number at between 71 and 77 million.

My PS4 sales estimates since 2013, by the end of each year...

By the end of 2017 : 71 - 77 million
By the end of 2018 : 93 - 102 million
By the end of 2019 : 112 - 124 million
By the end of 2020 : 124 - 136 million

The console generation will have lasted 7 years by the end of 2020. PS4 will definitely pass 100 million mark somewhere between Late 2018 and Mid 2019. It will reach 120 million between Summer 2019 and Early 2020. It may or may not reach 130+ million by the end of 2020.