I wouldn't pay for online. Get a better graphics card for my PC and play online games on the PC. I payed for xbox live for a year on the first xbox. I'll not make that mistake again. It's just not worth it.
I'm pretty sure Sony will stick with free online for PSN and make money other ways from it. In game advertising etc.. it makes much more sense. Free PSN really is a good selling point against the pay for Xbox Live. Certainly made my buy PS3 decision a lot easier.
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