Predict PS4 Sales Every Year Going Forward

[Slarvax]

LethalP said:

Slarvax said:

2017 = 20 million

2018 = 18 million (New revision. PS4Pro Slim or Ultra or whatever + Price cut)

2019 = 16 million 

2020 = 11 million (PS5 announced/released. PS4 starts to drop off big time)

2021 = 10 million (last price cut?)

2022 = 5 million

2023 and beyond = 4 million

I don't feel like doing math for totals, but that's what I can see. The PS5 could maybe release in 2021, but I think the PS4 specs will be too outdated at 2020 so I dont know. Those also look like very big numbers, but the PS4 likes to do that.

Do we have any idea how the PS3 sold after the PS4 released?

137.4 million. It's possible, but I don't really know. The PS4 is going to be the lead platform up until the PS5 releases in 2020 so I suppose I don't see why there should be that much of a decline before then. And unlike the PS3 it will be much cheaper after the PS5 launch, probably like $149 and less in the holidays.

PS3 sold like 10 million since 2013, but it was still like $249 when the PS4 launched so it never really got cheap like the PS2 and PS1 did after their successors release. PS4 will though so expect really good post-PS5 launch sales.

Yeah, PS4 will have much better legs than the PS3, but since the multimedia features become more irrelevant (Smartphones, Apple TV, etc, can do all that and more), it shouldn't get that many late adopters. Emerging markets also bought the PS2 a lot because it was super easy to pirate (talking from experience), and I dont know/think the PS4 will have that same advantage. Also, Japan is a dying market for PS.

On the other hand, the PS4 has China, a bigger western market, and the potential revisions which not only extend legs but also encourages double-dipping.