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StuOhQ said:
Hard to say where it would be right now if supply weren't so constrained. 1.5m is a given, 2 is a possibility, and even a little higher is nice to muse about. Nintendo can definitely move another million this year if they get their act together.

I think if supply weren't an issue, Nintendo could probably sell above 5m by the end of the year in Japan.  If the 3DS could sell close to 5m with a remake of OoT, MK7, Mario 3D Land and Nintendogs leading the charge then the Switch should be able to do better with its significantly better 1st year lineup that includes Japanese system seller franchises like Splatoon and Monster Hunter.