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Soundwave said:
bigjon said:
Going by when they launched next gen not by when they stopped supporting it.

NES 6 years 85-91
SNES 5 years 91-96 (tech was evolving way more rapidly in that period)
N64 5 years 96 to 2001
Gamecube 5 years 2001 to 2006
Wii 6 years 2006 to 2012
WiiU 5 years 2012-2017 (really 4.5, fall launch for WiiU, early spring launch for Switch)

So basically every Nintendo console has gotten about 5 years min, even the ones with weaker sales (GC and WiiU)
Only the 2 consoles that had dominating success(when WiiU launched Wii still had a massive lead over PS360, they had started narrowing the lead at that point, but it was really 2013-14 when PS360 were still selling great and Wii pretty much stopped that they pulled to a respectable distance) got 6 full years before a successor.

So that said, basically Shiggy is saying he see Switch possibly being a NES/Wii like success and thus would get 6 years maybe before a successor.

Nintendo has been remarkable consistent with this. Unlike MS which gave Xbox like 4 years, 360 like 8 years and now is releasing a console that is probably double the power of the XB1 4 years later (even though it is "same gen")

The difference between 5 and 6 year is immaterial, it's not really worth mentioning. 

I think he's speaking of a much larger difference than that. Think 8/9/10 years and more of an ecosystem, not just a singular hardware. 

It's not the 80s/90s anymore, every industry eventually changes. 

cell phones release annually with little or no change to hardware and people still line up indroves. If anything new hardware release could increase but this would be offset with more flexibility in games (like we see with PS4 pro and Scorpio allowing vanilla console owners access to all games just with limited performance.... like smart phones)

Yes people would never go for having to restart their games collection every 2 years, but if you guarenteed the machine would be able to play anything released over at a minimum the next 6 years people would go for it. The issue hear is the console industry loses is distiction from PC in several ways.



End of 2009 Predictions (Set, January 1st 2009)

Wii- 72 million   3rd Year Peak, better slate of releases

360- 37 million   Should trend down slightly after 3rd year peak

PS3- 29 million  Sales should pick up next year, 3rd year peak and price cut